Luckin Coffee(US:LKNCY) SPDB International·2025-11-20 07:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US) [8][22]. Core Views - Luckin Coffee is focusing on scale and market share expansion, with short-term same-store sales and profit margins potentially under pressure due to increased delivery costs [8]. - The company has accelerated store openings, netting 3,008 new stores in Q3 2025, marking a record for quarterly openings in the past three years [8]. - Despite short-term challenges, Luckin Coffee is expected to benefit from long-term structural trends in the coffee industry, including increased market concentration and consumer habit formation [8]. Financial Performance Overview - In Q3 2025, Luckin Coffee's GAAP operating profit grew by 12.9% year-on-year, with same-store revenue increasing by 14.4% [8]. - Revenue for Q3 2025 reached RMB 15.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50.2% [8]. - The gross margin expanded by 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, despite significant pressure from raw material costs [8]. - Delivery costs surged by 211% in Q3 2025, leading to a decline in GAAP operating profit margin by 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Luckin Coffee are as follows: - 2023: RMB 24.9 billion (YoY change: 87.3%) - 2024: RMB 34.5 billion (YoY change: 38.4%) - 2025E: RMB 50.3 billion (YoY change: 45.9%) - 2026E: RMB 65.2 billion (YoY change: 29.6%) - 2027E: RMB 73.5 billion (YoY change: 12.7%) [9]. - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: RMB 2.8 billion (YoY change: 483.3%) - 2024: RMB 2.9 billion (YoY change: 2.9%) - 2025E: RMB 3.6 billion (YoY change: 21.3%) - 2026E: RMB 4.1 billion (YoY change: 15.1%) - 2027E: RMB 6.5 billion (YoY change: 59.6%) [9]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the competitive landscape will improve, leading to increased industry concentration, which will benefit Luckin Coffee as a market leader [8]. - The company is expected to continue leveraging its strong product innovation, brand marketing, and efficient supply chain to maintain its leadership position in the coffee industry [8].