南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20251120

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate more widely in the future, with the futures price likely to "swing widely" between 82,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton this week, and short - term correction risks should be watched out for [3][5] - The lithium ore supply may be alleviated as the expected arrival of lithium concentrate this month is high, and the resumption of "Jianxiaowo" is a key variable affecting supply. The current demand is strong, but there are seasonal fluctuations in downstream production, and whether the production of energy - storage cells can make up for the decline in power cells is the focus [3] - The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts at the end of November needs attention, as a significant reduction in warehouse receipts may cause market speculation and directly impact the price of lithium carbonate [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - Futures Price Forecast: The strong resistance level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 100,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 48.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 84.1% [2] - Futures Contract Data: The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract is 98,980 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan (-0.32%) daily and up 11,140 yuan (12.68%) weekly. The trading volume is 1,595,646 lots, down 171,782 lots (-9.72%) daily and up 489,635 lots (44.27%) weekly. The open interest is 479,602 lots, down 23,530 lots (-4.68%) daily and down 56,912 lots (-10.61%) weekly [8] - Spread Data: LC2601 - LC2603 is -180 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan (-100.00%) daily and down 660 yuan (-137.50%) weekly; LC2601 - LC2605 is -1,140 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (-1.72%) daily and up 900 yuan (375.00%) weekly; LC2603 - LC2605 is -960 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan (-17.24%) daily and up 240 yuan (33.33%) weekly [8] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The total number of Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,916 lots, up 150 lots (0.56%) daily and down 592 lots (-2.15%) weekly [8] 3.2 Spot Data - Lithium Ore and Salt Prices: The prices of various lithium ores and salts have increased. For example, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 88,900 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan (2.77%) daily; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 91,300 yuan/ton, up 2,400 yuan (2.70%) daily [24] - Price Difference Data: The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 50 yuan (2.13%) weekly; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide is 10,720 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (9.16%) daily and up 2,550 yuan (31.21%) weekly [28] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - Basis Data: The basis of the main lithium carbonate contract and the brand - based basis of different companies are provided. For example, the basis of Shengxin Lithium Energy is -300 yuan/ton, and that of Tianqi Lithium is 0 yuan/ton [34] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The total number of warehouse receipts is 26,916 lots, an increase of 150 lots from yesterday. The warehouse receipts of Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Shanghai increased by 150 lots, while those of Shanghai State Reserve and Xiamen Jianyida (Jianfa Shanghai) decreased [36][37] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Production Profit: The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium concentrate and lithium mica is presented, as well as the import profit and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, with fluctuations in different time periods [38][40] 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy - Procurement Management: For enterprises with no correlation between product prices, strategies include buying 10% of far - month futures contracts, selling 10% of LC2601 - P - 80,000, and using an option combination strategy (selling put options + buying call options) with a 20% ratio. For those with product price correlation, 60% of the main futures contracts should be sold according to the procurement progress, and a combination option strategy (buying put options + selling call options) with a 30% ratio is recommended [2] - Sales Management: To prevent price drops and profit reduction, enterprises should sell futures contracts when obtaining lithium ore. For example, sell 30% of LC2601 - C - 100,000 and use a combination option strategy (buying put options + selling call options) with a 30% ratio [2] - Inventory Management: Enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory should short futures contracts according to inventory, such as selling 60% of the main futures contracts and 30% of LC2601 - C - 100,000 [2]