Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-21 03:03Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown requires attention to economic data and the impact on the real economy. The US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September, and the market may focus on this. Domestically, the economy shows a marginal slowdown, and the strength and effectiveness of policy support are key concerns [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate led to a decline in the US dollar index. The domestic LPR remained unchanged, having a neutral impact on the exchange rate. The RMB may gain some appreciation support later [4]. - The US September non - farm payroll report failed to resolve the Fed's internal differences. The stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indexes remaining dominant [5]. - For bonds, real - estate policy rumors may only affect short - term sentiment, and long - term interest rates are expected to remain low [6]. - In the container shipping market, the weak spot market and the expected price increase in December are in a game. Trend traders are advised to wait and see, and arbitrage traders can focus on spread reversal opportunities [9][11]. - For precious metals, the uncertainty of a December rate cut leads to continued volatile consolidation. In the long - term, prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, the market may continue to fluctuate [13][15]. - For copper, the 9 - month unemployment data has little impact on the December rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index remains above 100, and copper prices are likely to fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18][19]. - Zinc is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [20]. - For nickel and stainless steel, the market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy stimuli [23]. - Tin is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - For lithium carbonate, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices, and long positions should be gradually closed [26]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to focus on long positions in far - month contracts; for polysilicon, it is suitable for trading based on range - bound logic [29]. - Lead is expected to fluctuate, with support at the current level [30]. - For steel products, both rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and a lack of strong trend drivers [34]. - For coking coal and coke, in the short - term, there may be adjustment pressure, but in the long - term, they are suitable for long - positions. Pay attention to production inspection and safety policies [37]. - For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [38]. - For crude oil, it is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical factors [42]. - For LPG, the domestic market has relatively high valuation, and attention should be paid to profit - related impacts [44]. - For PTA - PX, the PX - PTA supply - demand structure is relatively good, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side [48]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is recommended to close short positions and switch to selling call options [50]. - For methanol, the 01 contract may continue to decline, and relevant hedging strategies are recommended [52]. - For PP, it is in bottom - range fluctuations, and short - term supply pressure may be relieved [55]. - For PE, the supply pressure is large, and the upward momentum is limited in the long - term [58]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the aromatics market is running strongly, but the rebound height of styrene is limited [60][61]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the long - LU and short - FU positions [63][65]. - For asphalt, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to winter - storage intentions [67]. - For rubber and 20 - grade rubber, they are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [68]. - For glass and soda ash, soda ash is expected to be weak, and glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract [70][71]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - Macro: The US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September. The domestic LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined. The unexpected rise in the US unemployment rate affected the exchange rate, and the RMB may gain appreciation support later [3][4]. - Stock Index: The stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with large - cap indexes remaining dominant due to the unclear Fed's rate - cut decision and other factors [5]. - Treasury Bond: Real - estate policy rumors may only affect short - term sentiment, and long - term interest rates are expected to remain low [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver: The uncertainty of a December rate cut leads to continued volatile consolidation. In the long - term, prices are expected to rise, but in the short - term, the market may continue to fluctuate [13][15]. - Copper: The 9 - month unemployment data has little impact on the December rate - cut expectation. The US dollar index remains above 100, and copper prices are likely to fluctuate around 86,000 [17]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18][19]. - Zinc: It is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [20]. - Nickel, Stainless Steel: The market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy stimuli [23]. - Tin: It is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is necessary to be cautious about chasing high prices, and long positions should be gradually closed [26]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to focus on long positions in far - month contracts; for polysilicon, it is suitable for trading based on range - bound logic [29]. - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate, with support at the current level [30]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: Both are expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption [31][32]. - Iron Ore: It is expected to fluctuate, with a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and a lack of strong trend drivers [34]. - Coking Coal & Coke: In the short - term, there may be adjustment pressure, but in the long - term, they are suitable for long - positions. Pay attention to production inspection and safety policies [37]. - Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese: They are expected to fluctuate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [38]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical factors [42]. - LPG: The domestic market has relatively high valuation, and attention should be paid to profit - related impacts [44]. - PTA - PX: The PX - PTA supply - demand structure is relatively good, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side [48]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: It is recommended to close short positions and switch to selling call options [50]. - Methanol: The 01 contract may continue to decline, and relevant hedging strategies are recommended [52]. - PP: It is in bottom - range fluctuations, and short - term supply pressure may be relieved [55]. - PE: The supply pressure is large, and the upward momentum is limited in the long - term [58]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: The aromatics market is running strongly, but the rebound height of styrene is limited [60][61]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and for low - sulfur fuel oil, pay attention to the long - LU and short - FU positions [63][65]. - Asphalt: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to winter - storage intentions [67]. Others - Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber: They are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [68]. - Glass & Soda Ash: Soda ash is expected to be weak, and glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract [70][71].