Workflow
恩华药业(002262):集采风险落地,经营向上拐点明确:恩华药业(002262):2025年三季报点评

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Enhua Pharmaceutical with a target price of 32.0 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - Enhua Pharmaceutical's Q3 2025 revenue reached 1.461 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.70% year-on-year increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 406 million yuan, up 3.67% [2]. - The company's performance is currently under pressure due to the impact of centralized procurement for Etomidate and restrictions on the prescription of Midazolam, but a clear upward turning point in operations is anticipated [2][8]. - The CNS (Central Nervous System) innovative pipeline is highlighted as a valuable asset, with a comprehensive layout in new drug development targeting schizophrenia, depression, Alzheimer's, and Parkinson's diseases [8]. Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 5.698 billion, 6.157 billion, 6.975 billion, and 8.005 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.0%, 8.1%, 13.3%, and 14.8% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.144 billion, 1.229 billion, 1.414 billion, and 1.735 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 10.3%, 7.5%, 15.0%, and 22.7% [4]. - The report indicates that the current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20, 17, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8]. Market Performance - Enhua Pharmaceutical's stock has shown a performance of -23% over the past 12 months compared to the CSI 300 index [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that despite short-term pressures from centralized procurement and stock incentive amortization expenses, the long-term growth potential remains strong due to the company's anesthetic line and the clinical transition of CNS innovative drugs [8]. - A valuation of 325 billion yuan is suggested based on comparable company valuations, leading to a target price of 32.0 yuan [8].