Allied Machinery(SH:605060) Soochow Securities·2025-11-21 07:04Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in precision casting, benefiting from the dual drivers of AI computing power in cooling and power supply sectors. It has established long-term partnerships with global giants and is poised for significant growth due to expanding demand in the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) market [8][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is recognized as a global leader in commercial air conditioning compressor castings and a prominent player in engineering machinery castings, with strong ties to major clients like Johnson Controls and Caterpillar [8][14]. - The company has a high degree of customer binding, with over 10 years of collaboration with top-tier clients, which enhances its competitive edge [14][21]. 2. Financial Performance - The company has shown a stable growth trend, with a CAGR of 12.7% in revenue and 13.3% in net profit from 2016 to 2024. However, a decline was noted in 2024 due to reduced demand in the commercial air conditioning sector [23][24]. - The revenue forecast for 2023A is 1,211 million yuan, with a projected increase to 2,164 million yuan by 2027E, reflecting a growth rate of 33.80% [1]. 3. Business Segments - The primary revenue source is from compressor components, accounting for over 60% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 38% in 2024. Engineering machinery components are also growing, with their revenue share increasing from 2% in 2016 to 31% in 2024 [25][26]. - The company is expanding its footprint in the AIDC sector, particularly in cooling and power supply, which is expected to drive future growth [8][36]. 4. Market Opportunities - The AIDC market is projected to grow significantly, with the U.S. AIDC cooling component market expected to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2028. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [8][37]. - The engineering machinery sector is anticipated to recover starting in 2025, benefiting the company due to its strong relationship with Caterpillar [8][36]. 5. Competitive Advantages - The company's integrated "casting + machining" capabilities provide a competitive edge, allowing for high product customization and superior profit margins compared to peers [8][36]. - The company has initiated a stock incentive plan to align the interests of key personnel with the company's long-term growth objectives [8][36].