太辰光(300570):2025 年三季报点评:交付节奏波动,关注MDC业务推进

Investment Rating - Maintain Outperform rating; target price set at 149.21 RMB based on a 43x PE for 2026 [4][9][10] Core Insights - Overall performance meets expectations, with revenue slightly below forecasts; Q3 2025 revenue at 1.21 billion RMB, up 32.58% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders at 0.26 billion RMB, up 78.55% YoY [10][11] - Revenue changes attributed to seasonal order fluctuations, while overall profitability remains stable with a Q3 gross profit margin of 36.15% and a net profit margin of 22.83% [10][11] - Strong industry demand noted, with a focus on the progress of the MDC business, which has potential for better development in high-density optical connections [11][12] Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2025-2027 is 1.39 billion RMB, 2.79 billion RMB, and 4.05 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 0.39 billion RMB, 0.79 billion RMB, and 1.18 billion RMB [3][4] - EPS forecasted to be 1.72 RMB, 3.47 RMB, and 5.19 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6] - The company maintains a stable profitability outlook with a projected ROE of 22.0% in 2025, increasing to 41.8% by 2027 [3][4]