Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-21 13:34Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: November 21, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Ling Chuanhui (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0019531) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Views - Short - term, after a rapid price drop, the spot and futures are stabilizing near integer levels. The overall supply of asphalt has increased due to the resumption of production at some refineries this week. Demand has improved as prices declined, mainly consuming social inventory, with no significant end - of - peak - season performance. The inventory structure has improved, with a slight increase in refinery inventory and a decline in social inventory. The cost of crude oil has been fluctuating weakly recently, and the spot basis has been weakening. In the long - term, demand in the north will end as the temperature drops, while in the south, post - rainfall catch - up demand may boost consumption. The peak season of asphalt has no unexpected performance. Short - term, attention should be paid to winter storage, and the adjustment of refinery prices may be the valuation anchor for BU01. Due to geopolitical disturbances in crude oil, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Asphalt Price and Risk Management Price Information - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.33% [2]. - On November 21, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3030 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3240 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 90 yuan/ton week - on - week), the North China spot price was 3020 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the South China spot price was 3150 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week) [2][6][9]. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, for a long spot position: - Short 25% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - Sell 20% of call options (bu2512C3500) at 30 - 40 yuan to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and hoping to purchase according to orders, for a short spot position: - Buy 50% of asphalt futures (bu2512) at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. - Sell 20% of put options (bu2512C3500) at 25 - 35 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Group 5: Other Information - There are various seasonal charts including asphalt 12 - contract basis seasonality in different regions (Shandong, North China, Yangtze River Delta, Northeast), asphalt futures month - spread seasonality (03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12), domestic asphalt refinery inventory rate seasonality, domestic asphalt social inventory rate seasonality, and asphalt warehouse and refinery warehouse receipt quantity seasonality [10][11][13][15][17][18][20][22][23].