Workflow
紫光股份(000938):跟踪点评:Q3营收环比超预期,毛利率有所承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [3] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue increased both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 77.322 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.41%, and a net profit of 1.404 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.24% [1][3] - The company's cash flow from operating activities was 272 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 111.35%, primarily due to increased sales collections and tax refunds received [1] - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue was 29.897 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.12% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.25%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 363 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.56% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 47.57% [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - The company's gross margin for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 was 15.67%, 14.90%, and 11.32%, respectively, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 3.65 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.58 percentage points. The decline in gross margin is attributed to the high shipment of white-box servers in Q2 and their recognition in Q3 [2] - The company is expected to see improvements in gross margins for its server business due to active collaboration with domestic AI chip manufacturers and the promotion of super-node servers in 2026 [2] - The company continues to invest in optical communication technologies, which are anticipated to enhance the gross margin of its switch business [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth driven by high-speed switches and AI servers, leveraging its advantages in software and hardware coordination, ICT integration solutions, supply chain integration, and expansion into overseas markets [2] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.8 billion yuan, 2.0 billion yuan, and 2.6 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 38, 34, and 26 times [2]