2025 年 10 月 15 日 AI 算力网络主线持续重视! -通信行业 25Q3 前瞻 本期投资提示: ● 风险提示：信息技术迭代可能颠覆已有路径或格局，下游相关环节需求可能不达预期。 时代小 《算网传导分化、卫星产业强化、景气周 期优化——2025 年通信行业投资策略》 2024/12/17 证券分析师 李围盛 A0230521080003 ligs@swsresearch.com 刘菁菁 A0230522080003 liujj@swsresearch.com 郝知雨 A0230525060002 haozy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈力扬 A0230124040003 chenly@swsresearch.com 通信板块部分代表公司更新如下: 联系人 郝知雨 (8621)23297818× haozy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 通信 == 相关研究 聚焦 25 年通信三条主线: 算网传导分化, 卫星产业强化, 景气周期优化。具体而言: 1) 算网主线: AI 产业趋势演进至推理主导, 算力方案趋于多元化。上 ...

行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 10 月 15 日 AI 算力网络主线持续重视！ 看好 ——通信行业 25Q3 前瞻 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：信息技术迭代可能颠覆已有路径或格局，下游相关环节需求可能不达预期。 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 《算网传导分化、卫星产业强化、景气周 期优化——2025 年通信行业投资策略》 2024/12/17 证券分析师 李国盛 A0230521080003 ligs@swsresearch.com 刘菁菁 A0230522080003 liujj@swsresearch.com 郝知雨 A0230525060002 haozy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈力扬 A0230124040003 chenly@swsresearch.com 联系人 郝知雨 (8621)23297818× haozy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 究 报 告 通信 相关研究 ⚫ 聚焦 25 年通信三条主线：算网传导分化，卫星产业强化，景气周期优化。具体而言： 1）算网 ...

证券日报网讯 10月14日晚间，紫光股份发布公告称，本次独立财务顾问主办人变更后，公司本次重大 资产重组的独立财务顾问主办人为崔登辉先生和王玉明先生。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

紫光股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）全资子公司紫光国际信息技术有限 公司（以下简称"紫光国际"）以支付现金的方式向 H3C Holdings Limited 购买 所持有的新华三集团有限公司（以下简称"新华三"）29%股权，以支付现金的 方式向 Izar Holding Co 购买所持有的新华三 1%股权，合计以 2,142,834,885 美元 购买新华三 30%股权（以下简称"本次重大资产重组"）。本次重大资产重组已 于 2024 年 9 月实施完成，公司通过紫光国际持有的新华三股权比例由 51%增加 至 81%，具体内容详见公司于 2024 年 9 月 20 日披露的《关于重大资产购买之标 的资产完成过户的公告》（公告编号：2024-055）。 中信建投证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信建投证券"）作为本次重大资 产重组独立财务顾问，持续督导期将于 2025 年 12 月 31 日届满。中信建投证券 原委派王志宇先生、崔登辉先生、王玉明先生三人担任独立财务顾问主办人。近 日，公司收到中信建投证券的通知，王志宇先生因工作变动不再担任本次重大资 产重组独立财务顾问主办人，由崔登辉先生、王玉明先生两人继续履行独 ...

格隆汇10月13日｜海通国际研报指出，互联网行业需求旺盛带动公司季度收入加速增长。紫光股份 25Q2实现营业收入266.35亿元，同比+27.17%、环比+28.12%；实现归母净利润6.92亿元，同比 +18.01%、环比+98.64%；季度收入继续加速增长。25H1新华三实现营业收入364.04亿元，同比 +37.75%；实现净利润18.51亿元，同比+2%。其中国内政企业务收入310.35亿元，同比+53.55%，主要 受整个互联网行业需求持续增长带动和公司在互联网厂商的全面布局。存货、合同负债维持高位，行业 保持高景气度。25H1末存货438.42亿元，较年初增长19.0%；合同负债159.12亿元，较年初增长9.7%。 25H1公司销售费用率、管理费用率、研发费用率及财务费用率分别为4.03%、1.06%、5.16%、1.50%， 同比分别-1.42pct、-0.16pct、-1.19pct、+0.91pct。参考可比公司估值，给予2026年PE35倍（原为2025年 35x），对应目标价为33.21元（-4%），维持"优于大市"评级。 ...

海通国际研报指出，互联网行业需求旺盛带动公司季度收入加速增长。紫光股份25Q2实现营业收入 266.35亿元，同比+27.17%、环比+28.12%；实现归母净利润6.92亿元，同比+18.01%、环比+98.64%； 季度收入继续加速增长。25H1新华三实现营业收入364.04亿元，同比+37.75%；实现净利润18.51亿元， 同比+2%。其中国内政企业务收入310.35亿元，同比+53.55%，主要受整个互联网行业需求持续增长带 动和公司在互联网厂商的全面布局。存货、合同负债维持高位，行业保持高景气度。25H1末存货438.42 亿元，较年初增长19.0%；合同负债159.12亿元，较年初增长9.7%。25H1公司销售费用率、管理费用 率、研发费用率及财务费用率分别为4.03%、1.06%、5.16%、1.50%，同比分 别-1.42pct、-0.16pct、-1.19pct、+0.91pct。参考可比公司估值，给予2026年PE35倍（原为2025年 35x），对应目标价为33.21元（-4%），维持"优于大市"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, projecting significant revenue and profit growth over the next few years [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 95.2 billion, RMB 114.7 billion, and RMB 136.2 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.04 billion, RMB 2.71 billion, and RMB 3.36 billion during the same period [3][7]. - The quarterly revenue has shown acceleration, with a 24.96% year-on-year increase in 2025H1, reaching RMB 47.43 billion [3][7]. - The growth in the internet business is significant, with a 37.75% increase in revenue for New H3C in 2025H1, driven by strong demand in the internet sector [3][7]. Financial Summary - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 77.31 billion, with a growth rate of 4.4%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach RMB 136.23 billion, reflecting an 18.8% growth rate [2][4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decline to RMB 2.10 billion in 2023, but is expected to recover to RMB 3.36 billion by 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from RMB 0.74 to RMB 1.17 [2][4]. - The gross profit margin for 2025H1 was reported at 15.24%, a decrease of 3.80 percentage points year-on-year [3][7]. Business Segments - The domestic government and enterprise revenue for New H3C reached RMB 31.04 billion in 2025H1, a 53.55% increase, while international revenue grew by 60.25% to RMB 1.92 billion [3][7]. - The ICT infrastructure and services revenue was RMB 36.04 billion in 2025H1, with a gross profit margin of 18.06%, down 6.32 percentage points year-on-year [3][7]. Inventory and Liabilities - As of the end of 2025H1, inventory stood at RMB 43.84 billion, up 19.0% from the beginning of the year, while contractual liabilities increased by 9.7% to RMB 15.91 billion [3][7].

Investment Rating - The report suggests to continue focusing on investment opportunities within the communication industry [2] Core Insights - The communication industry showed steady revenue growth and accelerated profitability in H1 2025, with total revenue reaching 1785.003 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.07%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 160.432 billion yuan, up 11.26% year-on-year [4][7] - The AI computing industry chain is expected to continue accelerating its development in 2025, benefiting the communication industry [17][19] Summary by Sections H1 2025 Performance Overview - The communication industry achieved a total revenue of 1785.003 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.07%, and a net profit of 160.432 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.26% increase [4][7] Segment Performance Changes - In H1 2025, the optical module and device segment reported revenue of 47.988 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.88%, and net profit of 10.876 billion yuan, up 111.99% [25] - The communication PCB segment achieved revenue of 57.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.66%, and net profit of 8.058 billion yuan, up 80.79% [31] - The network equipment segment generated revenue of 507.111 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.86%, with net profit of 19.184 billion yuan, up 19.57% [37] AI Industry Chain Investment - Major overseas cloud companies are expected to maintain optimistic growth in capital expenditures, with a total of 95 billion USD in Q2 2025, reflecting an 82.96% year-on-year increase [17] - Companies like Oracle and Nvidia are showing strong growth prospects in their AI-related businesses, with Oracle's unfulfilled revenue reaching 455 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 359% [22][19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4][19] Core Views - The telecommunications industry is benefiting from the ongoing Digital China strategy, leading to stable growth in overall business for operators, with innovative services experiencing higher growth rates and increasing proportions [2] - The AI computing power sector continues to thrive globally, with significant investments from major companies, indicating a rapid growth period for domestic computing power targets [4] - New growth drivers such as satellite internet are injecting new momentum into the industry, providing additional performance elasticity [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Telecom Operators - China Mobile is expected to report Q3 revenue of CNY 245.1 billion to CNY 246 billion, a year-on-year growth of 0.2% to 0.5%, with net profit of CNY 32.1 billion to CNY 32.4 billion, a growth of 4.6% to 5.6% [2][16] - China Telecom is projected to achieve Q3 revenue of CNY 127.2 billion to CNY 128.5 billion, a growth of 1% to 2%, with net profit of CNY 7.75 billion to CNY 8.05 billion, a growth of 3.5% to 7.5% [2][16] - China Unicom's Q3 revenue is expected to be CNY 93.7 billion to CNY 94.6 billion, with a growth of 1% to 2%, and net profit of CNY 2.41 billion to CNY 2.49 billion, a growth of 4.8% to 8.3% [3][16] - China Tower is anticipated to report Q3 revenue of CNY 24.9 billion to CNY 25.2 billion, a growth of 2.9% to 4.1%, with net profit of CNY 2.97 billion to CNY 3.05 billion, a growth of 5.2% to 8% [3][16] AI and Network Connectivity - The AI optical module sector is experiencing significant growth, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang expected to report Q3 revenue of CNY 8.9 billion to CNY 9.6 billion, a growth of 37% to 47%, and net profit of CNY 2.9 billion to CNY 3.2 billion, a growth of 108% to 130% [4][16] - Tianfu Communication is projected to achieve Q3 revenue of CNY 1.8 billion to CNY 2.1 billion, a growth of 115% to 150%, with net profit of CNY 650 million to CNY 750 million, a growth of 102% to 133% [5][16] AI Applications and Data Centers - AI server demand is rapidly increasing, with ZTE expected to report Q3 revenue of CNY 31 billion to CNY 32 billion, a growth of 12% to 16%, and net profit of CNY 1.95 billion to CNY 2.1 billion, a decrease of 3% to 10% [7][16] - The AIDC sector is also growing, with Keda Data expected to report Q3 revenue of CNY 24 billion to CNY 27 billion, a growth of 44% to 62%, and net profit of CNY 180 million to CNY 230 million, a growth of 1347% to 1748% [8][16] Satellite Internet and Military Communication - The military communication sector is expected to see increased investment due to regional tensions, with companies like Zhenlei Technology projected to report Q3 revenue of CNY 150 million to CNY 160 million, a growth of 125% to 141%, and net profit of CNY 45 million to CNY 50 million, a growth of 409% to 466% [10][16]

编辑 杨娟娟 新京报贝壳财经讯（记者韦博雅）10月9日，国际数据公司IDC发布的数据显示，2025上半年中国加速 服务器市场规模达到160亿美元，同比2024上半年增长超过一倍。IDC预计，到2029年，中国加速服务 器市场规模将超过1400亿美元。 2025上半年，从厂商销售额看，浪潮、新华三、联想位居前三，占据了近50%的市场份额；从服务器出 货台数角度看浪潮、新华三、宁畅居前三名，占有约43%的市场份额；从行业看，互联网依然是最大的 采购行业，占整体加速服务器市场近69%的份额，此外金融、教育、运营商和医疗健康等多数行业均有 超过一倍以上的增涨。 此外，2025上半年中国加速芯片的市场规模达到超过190万张。 IDC分析师认为，中国AI加速服务器市场正在经历规模扩张和本土替代的阶段。在高端算力效能与生态 成熟度上仍需突破。未来竞争焦点将从单芯片性能转向系统能效比、开放生态协同和绿色算力成本控 制。行业需避免低水平重复建设，通过技术协同与标准优化提升国际竞争力。 校对 陈荻雁 ...