煤焦周度观点-20251123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand and macro factors lead to the downward revision of coal - coke valuation. Domestic coal production has a slight month - on - month increase but may be affected by safety inspections, and Mongolian coal supply remains high. Downstream coking coal replenishment is limited due to bearish sentiment, and steel mills' production is unstable. Recently, the macro risk appetite at home and abroad has significantly declined, and the valuation of risk assets has dropped. The notice on the signing of long - term coal contracts in 2026 strengthens the market's expectation of coal supply recovery, and without significant positive drivers in demand and the macro - level, coal - coke valuation continues to fall [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Coal - Coke Weekly Viewpoint - Supply: Domestic coal production has a slight month - on - month increase, but some areas may have temporary shutdowns due to safety inspections. Mongolian coal supply remains high, especially the significant year - on - year increase in the number of trucks passing through the Ganqimaodu Port recently [3] - Demand: Affected by bearish sentiment, downstream coking coal replenishment is limited, but steel mills' production is unstable, and hot metal production remains high [3] - Macro: Recently, the macro risk appetite at home and abroad has significantly declined, the valuation of risk assets related to technology and other themes has dropped significantly, and the domestic valuation has also been significantly revised down [3] - Viewpoint Summary: The notice on the signing of long - term coal contracts in 2026 strengthens the market's expectation of coal supply recovery, and without significant positive drivers in demand and the macro - level, coal - coke valuation continues to fall [3] Coal - Coke Fundamental Data Changes - Coal: FW raw coal is 851.45 (-2.36), FW clean coal is 433.84 (-1.82), hot metal production is 236.28 (-0.6), MS total inventory is - 10.1 (mine raw coal - 0.1, mine clean coal + 20.9, independent coking - 30.8, steel mill coking + 6.9, port - 7.0, FW port + 12.7), and the profit of commercial coal is 587 (-6). The Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt is 1223 [5] - Coke: The daily average of independent coking plants is 62.67 (-0.33), the daily average of steel mill coking plants is 46.22 (+0.05), hot metal production is 236.28 (-0.6), MS total inventory is + 1.3 (independent coking - 5.8, steel mill - 0.1, port + 7.1), and the average profit of coking enterprises is 19 (+53). The Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt is 1621 [5] 01 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - Supply - Weekly: It shows the production data of raw coal, clean coal, and the production of 523 sample mines, as well as the production data of coking coal in different years [9][11][13] - Supply - Monthly: It shows the monthly production data of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal from 2019 to 2025 [15] - Supply - Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance: It shows the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports and the total customs clearance volume of the three ports from 2021 to 2025 [17][20][21][23] - Inventory - Pithead: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines increased by 13.62 tons week - on - week to 155.81 tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 10.41 tons week - on - week to 97.99 tons [28] - Inventory - Port: This week, the coking coal port inventory is 291.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7 tons [30] - Inventory - Coking Plant: It shows the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking plants, including the overall situation and the situation in different regions and different production capacities [33][35][37] - Inventory - Steel Mill: It shows the inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and steel mill coking plants, including the overall situation and the situation in different regions [39] 02 Coke Fundamental Data - Supply - Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant: It shows the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants, including the overall situation, the situation of plants with different production capacities, and the situation in different regions [42] - Supply - Capacity Utilization - Steel Mill: It shows the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises from 2019 to 2025 [44] - Supply - Output - Coking Plant: It shows the daily output of coke in independent coking plants, including the overall situation and the situation in different years [46] - Supply - Output - Steel Mill: It shows the daily output of coke in 247 steel enterprises from 2019 to 2025 [48] - Inventory - Coking Plant: It shows the inventory of coke in independent coking plants, including the overall situation and the situation in different years [50] - Inventory - Steel Mill: It shows the inventory and average available days of coke in steel mill coking plants, including the overall situation and the situation in different years and different regions [51][53][54] - Inventory - Full - Sample Summary: It shows the total coke inventory from 2019 to 2025 [56] - Demand - Pig Iron: It shows the daily output of hot metal in 247 steel enterprises from 2019 to 2025 and the supply - demand difference of coke [58][59] - Profit: It shows the profit of coke, including the profit of the main - contract on the coke futures and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises [62][63] 03 Coal - Coke Spot and Futures Prices - Coking Coal Futures: It shows the futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2601 and coking coal 2605 from November 14 to November 21, 2025 [67] - Coke Futures: It shows the futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coke 2601 and coke 2605 from November 14 to November 21, 2025 [69] - Coal - Coke Month - Spread: It shows the month - spreads of coking coal and coke from August 7 to November 7, 2025 [72] - Coal - Coke Spot: It shows the spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke [75] - Coal - Coke Basis: The basis fluctuates within a narrow range, and the futures prices have been relatively firm recently, so the basis has not broken through the previous high [77]