国泰君安期货·能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20251123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term. The domestic production areas are gradually entering the production - reduction and suspension season, and rainfall in southern Thailand and Vietnam continues to cause disruptions. The upstream raw material prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the cost side still has strong support. However, the arrival of overseas shipments shows a seasonal increase trend, and the inventory accumulation of natural rubber remains unchanged, suppressing spot prices. There are still differences between bulls and bears in the market, and there is a lack of positive drivers [106][107]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In October 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 97.951 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to October, the production increased by 1% year - on - year to 996.421 million pieces. China's rubber tire exports from January to October reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, and the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [5]. - The Ghana Rubber Processors Association (RUPAG) supports the government's decision to restrict raw rubber exports in the "Revitalization Industry Plan" of the 2026 budget statement. The association plans to increase the country's dry rubber production from the current 100,000 tons to 250,000 tons by 2035 [6]. - The Malaysian government aims to increase natural rubber production to at least 400,000 tons of cup lump rubber and 20,000 tons of latex, which is expected to save 4 billion ringgit by reducing import dependence [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, the domestic natural rubber market rose, while the overseas market was divided. SGX TSR20 slightly declined, and JPX RSS3 rose. On November 21, 2025, the closing price of RU2601.SHF was 15,240 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%; the closing price of NR2601.SHF was 12,285 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2601 was 170.90 cents/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35%; the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2601 was 333.30 yen/kg, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [10][12]. 3.3 Price Spreads - Base and Monthly Spreads: The spread between whole - milk rubber and RU01 was - 390 yuan/ton on November 21, 2025, a week - on - week increase of 16.13% and a year - on - year increase of 52.44%. The 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.88% and a year - on - year increase of 68.00% [17]. - Other Spreads: RU - NR and RU - BR spreads increased, while RU - JPX RSS3 and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads decreased. In the non - standard base spread, the import rubber market had trader rotations. At the beginning of the week, the monthly spread of imported mixed rubber was close to par, and holders were active in selling, but the buying sentiment was weak. At the end of the week, arbitrageurs added long positions, and factories replenished stocks cautiously. The spread between whole - milk rubber and Thai - mixed rubber and the spread between 3L rubber and Thai - mixed rubber widened [22][25]. - Substitute Price: The price of butadiene rubber increased slightly due to good buying at the raw material end and the postponement of the restart of some Korean cracking units. However, due to sufficient supply and good production profits, downstream resistance to price increases is rising, and intermediate trading has weakened significantly [35]. 3.4 Capital Flows - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU increased, and the settled funds decreased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased, and the settled funds also decreased. On November 21, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 46.62, a week - on - week increase of 162.67% and a year - on - year increase of 51.19%; the virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was 19.75, a week - on - week decrease of 7.98% and a year - on - year increase of 63.92%. The settled funds of RU were 5.075 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 4.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 32.27%; the settled funds of NR were 2.212 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 9.19% and a year - on - year increase of 7.23% [38][40]. 3.5 Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Supply - Weather: In Thailand, the southern region has entered the rainy season with a rapid increase in rainfall, while the rainfall in the northeast is seasonally decreasing. In China, the rainy season in Hainan is about to end, and Yunnan is at the end of the rainy season [43][45]. - Raw Material Prices: Weather factors have accelerated the end of the tapping season in Yunnan, and overseas raw material prices are high, providing strong support for rubber prices. On November 21, 2025, the cup - lump price in Thailand's Songkhla Province was 52.95 baht/kg, and the latex price was 57 baht/kg [47][48]. - Raw Material Spreads: The spread between latex and cup - lump in Thailand decreased. The spread between the price of latex for concentrated latex production and that for whole - milk rubber production in Hainan decreased, while the spread in Yunnan increased [51]. - Upstream Processing Profits: As raw material prices rise, processing profits generally decline. On November 21, 2025, the theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 741 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 36950.00% [54][56]. - Delivery Profits: The delivery profits in Hainan and Yunnan continued to recover. On November 21, 2025, the delivery profit of dry rubber (SCRWF) in Hainan was - 2420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 369.49%; the delivery profit in Yunnan was - 400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 5100.00% [59][64]. - Exports: In September 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. The exports of standard rubber decreased significantly year - on - year, while the exports of smoked sheets increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. In October 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to a sharp decrease in standard rubber exports, while the exports of mixed rubber continued to increase month - on - month. In September 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the exports to China decreased seasonally. In October 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, but the exports to China continued to increase year - on - year and month - on - month [65][71][75][79]. - Imports: In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 5.108 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89%. The imports of Thai standard rubber continued to decline year - on - year and month - on - month, while the imports of Indonesian standard rubber and mixed rubber were at a high level year - on - year, and the imports of Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [82]. 3.5.2 Demand - Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased. Some full - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises had maintenance during the period, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The main reasons for maintenance were insufficient orders, slow shipments, and equipment transformation in some sample enterprises. Both full - steel and semi - steel tires continued to accumulate inventory this week. On November 21, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tires was 62.04%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.50%; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.97%. The inventory days of full - steel tires were 40.24 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.74%; the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 45.86 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.10% [87]. - Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales: In October 2025, the exports of semi - steel tires continued to decline significantly month - on - month, while the exports of full - steel tires decreased slightly month - on - month. The sales of heavy - trucks and passenger cars increased month - on - month in October, but the growth rate decreased slightly [88]. - Road Transport Turnover: In October 2025, the freight turnover of road transport decreased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover improved month - on - month [92]. 3.5.3 Inventory - Spot Inventory: China's natural rubber inventory slightly increased this period, with the dark - colored rubber inventory continuing to increase and the light - colored rubber inventory basically remaining stable, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The sample tire enterprises had a small amount of replenishment of dark - colored rubber, but the overall volume was limited, and the outbound volume in Qingdao decreased by 17%. On November 14, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.0619 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.52%; the social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 669,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%; the social inventory of light - colored rubber was 392,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01% [98][101]. - Futures Inventory: On November 21, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 39,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.49% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.00%; the spot - and - futures inventory was 78,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.61%. The futures inventory of 20 -号 rubber at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 50,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.76%; the spot - and - futures inventory was 53,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.18% [103].