SWSC(SH:600369) Southwest Securities·2025-11-24 03:14Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resonance of the central bank's outright reverse repurchase and the stock - bond seesaw effect has led to a recovery in the net inflow of bond ETFs. The high - level correction of the equity market last week boosted the bond market, with most types of bond ETFs seeing net inflows [2][5]. - The share of convertible bond ETFs, which had shrunk for many weeks, turned positive significantly. It is expected to be a contrarian position - adding operation during the equity correction period in a slow - bull trend [2][17]. - The overall share of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs had a small outflow, while the net value increased across the board, which is related to the year - end chasing - up market of underlying credit bonds [2][30]. - The overall share of science and technology innovation bond ETFs increased slightly compared with the previous week, and the net value trend was flat [35][37]. - Funds were buying convertible bond ETFs on dips, as the net value of convertible bond ETFs led the decline while the net inflow ranked high [38]. Summary According to the Directory 1.1 各类债券 ETF 资金净流入情况 - The net inflow of bond ETFs recovered. Last week, the net inflow of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit bond ETFs, and convertible bond ETFs was +37.39 billion yuan, +65.43 billion yuan, and +35.52 billion yuan respectively, with a total net inflow of 138.34 billion yuan in the bond ETF market. As of November 21, 2025, the bond ETF fund scale was 718.778 billion yuan, up 1.77% from the previous week's close and 299.83% from the beginning of the year, accounting for 12.82% of the total market ETF scale [2][5]. - Most types of bond ETFs saw net inflows, with treasury bond ETFs leading in net inflow for three consecutive weeks. Only policy - financial bond ETFs (-0.97 billion yuan) and benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs (-3.23 billion yuan) had small net outflows [2][6]. 1.2 各类债券 ETF 份额走势 - The share of convertible bond ETFs, which had shrunk for many weeks, turned positive significantly. As of the close last week, the shares of treasury bond, policy - financial bond, local bond, credit bond, and convertible bond ETFs increased by 4.83%, -0.20%, 0.95%, 2.32%, and 5.49% respectively compared with the previous week, and the share of bond - type ETFs increased by 3.5% [2][17]. - After continuous net outflows for many weeks, funds flowed into convertible bond ETFs, and it is expected to be a contrarian position - adding operation during the equity correction period in a slow - bull trend [2][17]. 1.3 主要债券 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The shares of major bond ETFs generally increased. As of the close on November 21, 2025, the shares of selected targets changed by 5.15 million shares, -0.15 million shares, no change, 117.60 million shares, and 197.40 million shares respectively compared with the previous week's close [21]. - The 30 - year treasury bond ETF was bought on dips. Affected by long - term interest rate fluctuations and the equity market, the 30 - year treasury bond ETF and convertible bond ETF corrected, with the latter having a more significant decline. The net value of the 30 - year treasury bond ETF turned down while the share showed a net inflow, which may be related to its safe - haven asset attribute during the stock market correction and the central bank's liquidity - caring behavior [2][26]. 1.4 基准做市信用债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The overall share of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs had a small outflow. As of the close on November 21, 2025, the shares of 8 credit bond ETFs had little change or a small decrease [27][30]. - The net value of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs increased across the board, which is related to the year - end chasing - up market of underlying credit bonds. Due to the difficult - to - mine long - end interest - rate bond returns this year, the year - end performance demand promoted credit bond allocation, especially the 3 - 5 - year credit bonds with higher yields, which pushed up the net value of benchmark market - making credit bond ETFs since October [2][30]. 1.5 科创债 ETF 份额及净值走势 - The overall share of science and technology innovation bond ETFs increased slightly compared with the previous week. The net inflow of shares last week was 17.99 million shares, an increase of 0.72% compared with the previous week. Some products had significant net inflows or outflows [35]. - The net value trend of science and technology innovation bond ETFs was flat. As of the close on November 21, 2025, the average net values of the first - batch and second - batch science and technology innovation bond ETFs changed little compared with the previous week [37]. 1.6 单只债券 ETF 市场表现情况 - Funds were buying convertible bond ETFs on dips. Last week, the net values of convertible bond ETFs and Shanghai - Stock - Exchange convertible bond ETFs led the decline due to the adjustment of the equity market. In terms of the premium - discount rate, benchmark treasury bond ETFs, convertible bond ETFs, and 30 - year treasury bond ETFs led in premium rates [38]. - In terms of scale changes, convertible bond ETFs (+26.78 billion yuan), short - term financing ETFs (+25.83 billion yuan), and benchmark treasury bond ETFs (+20.12 billion yuan) ranked in the top three in net inflow, which confirmed the logic of funds allocating convertible bond ETFs on dips [38].