Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the copper market are poor, and the upward momentum of copper prices is weak. The uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased, leading to large short - term fluctuations in copper prices. With the gradual resumption of production in Indonesian mines, weak spot demand, high inventories, and uncertain medium - term spot demand, there are risks in the copper market [3][4]. Summary by Related Information Market Sentiment and Macro - environment - The preliminary values of manufacturing PMIs in the US and Europe are lower than expected, the US consumer confidence index hits a record low, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December rises to over 50%, improving market sentiment. Tensions in Sino - Japanese relations persist, and the market focuses on the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations. The US dollar rises, the RMB falls slightly, and the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal market is cautious [3]. Copper Price and Inventory - Today, SHFE copper closes at 86,080, and the spot price is 86,310, with a spot premium of 230 points over the futures. The spot basis premium drops to 85 points, and spot trading is poor. LME spot turns to a premium of $1 this week, indicating improved foreign spot demand. US copper inventories continue to rise to a new high this week, LME copper inventories increase, and SHFE copper inventories remain stable, suggesting weak spot demand [3]. Technical Analysis - Today, LME copper moves flat around $10,778. SHFE copper rises slightly after a pull - back, closing at 86,080, with a weak technical pattern. Both trading volume and open interest of SHFE copper decline, showing a cautious market sentiment [4]. Market Outlook - The prospect of the Fed's interest rate cut is uncertain, the US AI bubble theory is negative, and domestic economic data is poor. The medium - term spot demand has high uncertainty and risks. Future attention should be paid to whether the Fed's interest rate cut cycle can continue and when the current weak spot demand at home and abroad will improve [4]. Copper Market Indicator Monitoring - From November 18th to 24th, the RMB exchange rate shows small fluctuations, the spot premium shows different changes, the Yangshan copper premium rises to $35, the LME copper - futures spread has different values, and the LME - SHFE copper ratio is around 8 [5].
金货期业弘：基本面不佳，铜价上行乏力