Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-11-24 12:30Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply and demand of steel products have both increased, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The profitability of steel mills is declining, and the terminal demand is still weak. Although the apparent demand has rebounded, the sustainability of the demand improvement is questionable due to seasonal factors. The cost side still provides support [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Steel Product Supply and Demand - Supply: The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 2.0796 million tons (+79,600 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.1601 million tons (+23,500 tons). Some steel mills have resumed production, increasing the supply pressure [5]. - Demand: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils has rebounded. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.3079 million tons (+144,200 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.2442 million tons (+108,300 tons). However, the sustainability of the demand improvement is questionable due to seasonal factors, and the terminal demand is still weak [5]. 3.2 Inventory - Rebar: The total inventory of rebar was 5.5334 million tons (-228,300 tons), the social inventory was 4.0002 million tons (-157,300 tons), and the steel mill inventory was 1.5332 million tons (-71,000 tons) [8]. - Hot - rolled Coils: The total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.0211 million tons (-84,100 tons), the social inventory was 3.2409 million tons (-89,100 tons), and the steel mill inventory was 780,200 tons (+5,000 tons) [8]. 3.3 Price - Spot Price: As of November 21, the average national summary price of rebar was 3,268 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from last week; the average national summary price of hot - rolled coils was 3,309 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from last week [11]. - Basis: As of November 21, the basis of the rebar main contract was 163 yuan/ton (+26), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 0 yuan/ton (-4) [8][14]. 3.4 Raw Materials - Price: The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,480 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,645 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 788 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton) [16]. 3.5 Production Indicators - Iron Water Production: The iron water output was 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous period [8][20]. - Blast Furnace and Electric Furnace Indicators: As of November 21, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.62% month - on - month, the electric furnace operating rate increased by 1% month - on - month, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.22% month - on - month, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.62% month - on - month [8]. - Steel Mill Profitability: As of November 21, the profitability of steel mills was 37.66%, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous period [8][24]. - Tangshan Blast Furnace Operating Rate: As of November 21, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan was 91.20%, unchanged from the previous period [29]. 3.6 Other Market Data - Steel Export: In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a decrease of 690,000 tons from the previous month; from January to October, the cumulative steel export volume was 97.737 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.6% [65]. - Automobile Production and Sales: In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, an increase of 466,000 vehicles from the previous month; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons from the previous month. The production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million vehicles, an increase of 226,000 vehicles from the previous month; new energy vehicle sales increased by 209,000 tons from the previous month [69]. - Real Estate Data: From January to September, national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, the new construction area of houses decreased by 18.9%, the completed area of houses decreased by 15.3%, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 5.5%, the sales amount of newly built commercial housing decreased by 7.9%, and the funds in place for development enterprises decreased by 8.4% [71][72].