Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-11-24 12:29Report Title - Iron Ore Weekly Report 20251124: Molten Iron Drops Slightly, Futures Market Fluctuates [2] Report Author - Zhou Guisheng, with qualification certificate F3036194 and investment consulting certificate Z0015986 [3] Core Viewpoints - Currently, iron ore supply is relatively abundant, while molten iron production on the demand side drops slightly but remains at a relatively high - medium level. Later, molten iron production will decline seasonally, and the steel mills' winter - storage restocking demand has not been released. In the short term, the market will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] Supply Analysis - From November 17th to November 23rd, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.2784 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38 million tons. Australian shipments were 1.8396 billion tons, down 2.713 million tons week - on - week; Brazilian shipments were 797.8 million tons, down 604,000 tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports reached 2.8171 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 548,200 tons [4] - As of November 21st, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 475,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.79%, up 0.03% week - on - week. The mine concentrate inventory was 758,500 tons, up 16,200 tons week - on - week [4] - Global shipments decreased slightly week - on - week, with both Australian and Brazilian ores showing a decline. The arrival volume stopped falling and rebounded, and domestic ore production fluctuated slightly. Overall, the supply was relatively abundant [5] Demand Analysis - In the week of November 21st, the daily average molten iron output was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons. Although the molten iron output dropped slightly and remained at a relatively high - medium level, with the continuous decline of steel mill profitability, the molten iron output will show a seasonal weakening trend later [4] - Steel mill profitability has declined, and the price of imported iron ore fluctuates in the range of $100 - $105 per ton [4] Inventory Analysis - The inventory of imported ore decreased slightly this period, and the number of ships at the port increased by 4 to 120. The port congestion increased slightly, while the steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level, and the winter - storage restocking demand has not started yet. The overall inventory was relatively stable [4] - Port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking demand later [5] Price and Spread Analysis - Spot prices rebounded slightly [6] - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder rebounded slightly, and the spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder fluctuated at a low level [12][16] - The 01 and 05 contract basis fluctuated slightly [4] - The 1 - 5 spread rose first and then fell, and the 01 contract basis fluctuated at a low level [20] - The screw - to - ore ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the ore - to - coke ratio rebounded slightly [27] Strategy Suggestion - The strategy is range - bound trading [5]