DEC(SH:600875) HTSC·2025-11-24 13:29Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [7] Core Views - Global gas turbine orders increased by 95% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching a historical high of 24GW, driven by various factors including energy policy shifts and AI power demand [1] - The report is optimistic about the overseas gas turbine market, recommending companies such as Siemens Energy, Harbin Electric, and Dongfang Electric, while also highlighting export opportunities for domestic component manufacturers [1][4] - The supply-demand situation for gas turbines remains tight, with global new orders expected to exceed 85GW in 2025, while existing overseas capacity is only about 50GW [4] Summary by Sections Global Market Overview - North America contributed over 50% of new orders in Q3 2025, with 12.7GW of new orders, a 14% increase quarter-on-quarter [2] - In the >10MW gas turbine market, market shares for GEV, MHI, and Siemens Energy are estimated at 31%, 30%, and 21% respectively, with MHI recovering market share due to a rebound in the Asian market [2] Order Trends - Orders for light gas turbines saw a significant decline in Q3 2025, attributed to the signing rhythm and potential supply chain pressures [3] - The report suggests that if supply chain pressures ease, orders for small gas turbines may rebound [3] Domestic Opportunities - The report emphasizes the historical opportunity for domestic gas turbine manufacturers to expand overseas, similar to previous trends in power grid equipment exports [5] - Companies like Dongfang Electric have made strides in developing independent gas turbine models and have begun exporting to markets like Kazakhstan [5] Company Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include: - Harbin Electric (1133 HK) with a target price of 21.00, rated "Buy" [9] - Dongfang Electric (600875 CH) with a target price of 30.79, rated "Buy" [9] - Siemens Energy (ENR GR) with a target price of 134.40, rated "Overweight" [9]