东航物流（601156）：首次覆盖报告：航空物流领先服务商，业绩稳健增长可期待

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for investors [2]. Core Insights - The company is a leading air logistics service provider backed by China Eastern Airlines Group, with a stable operating profit and significant growth in comprehensive logistics services [4][5]. - The air express business serves as the foundation, while comprehensive logistics solutions represent a secondary growth curve [4][5]. - The company has a robust network of air routes, covering 16 international cities and reaching 1,000 destinations globally [4][17]. - The comprehensive logistics solutions have seen a notable increase in revenue share, driven by the rapid growth of cross-border e-commerce logistics solutions [4][18]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 20,621 million yuan in 2023, with a projected increase to 24,056 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 2,488 million yuan in 2023 to 2,688 million yuan in 2024, marking an 8% increase [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.57 yuan in 2023, increasing to 1.69 yuan in 2024 [2]. Business Segments - The company's main business segments include air express, ground comprehensive services, and comprehensive logistics solutions [15][4]. - The air express segment is characterized by high gross margins and significant operational advantages, with a gross margin of 18.91% in H1 2025 [4][40]. - Ground comprehensive services benefit from a strong market position at Pudong Airport, achieving a gross margin of 34.19% in H1 2025, significantly higher than competitors [4][47]. - Comprehensive logistics solutions are expanding rapidly, with cross-border e-commerce solutions growing by 41% in export volume and 48% in weight in 2024 [58][62]. Market Outlook - The supply of cargo aircraft remains tight, while demand for air logistics is expected to improve due to economic growth and the booming cross-border e-commerce market [75][85]. - The report forecasts that the net profit for the company will reach 26.29 billion yuan in 2025, 28.10 billion yuan in 2026, and 31.15 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.8X, 9.2X, and 8.3X [4][5].