Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and the delay in the release of the November non-farm payroll data have significantly reduced market expectations for a rate cut in December, with a likelihood of a pause rather than a cancellation of rate cuts [1][12][14] - The report suggests that the overall economic pressure is increasing, with the ECI supply index at 49.94% and the demand index at 49.87%, indicating a continued slowdown in economic activity [11][12] Financial Products - The A-share market is expected to experience a short-term adjustment in November, with a macro timing model scoring -5, indicating a high probability of adjustment for the entire A-share index [2][10] - The report highlights that small-cap stocks may perform relatively better, while the sentiment in the small-cap sector has been negatively impacted by the suspension of high-profile stocks [2][10] Industry Analysis - The report discusses the Chinese economy's main theme for 2025 as responding to changes, with external factors like fluctuating tariffs and internal factors such as asset revaluation and investment growth turning negative [3][4][15] - It emphasizes five key areas for 2026: policy continuity, AI-driven supply changes, consumer subsidy adjustments, asset liability repair, and price stability through anti-involution measures, projecting a GDP growth rate of around 4.9% [4][15] Fixed Income - The report notes that the yield on 10-year government bonds has shown slight upward movement, indicating a cautious market outlook as investors await year-end allocation opportunities [5][16][18] - It highlights that the issuance of green bonds has decreased, with a total issuance of approximately 24.619 billion yuan this week, down from the previous week [5][6]
东吴证券晨会纪要-20251126