南华期货早评-20251126

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Macro and Financial Futures - The US economic data indicates an increasing possibility of interest - rate cuts. The market is focusing on November employment data and the appointment process of the Fed Chair. In China, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, while the policy remains firm, and the market anticipates more policy support [1][2]. - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to "oscillate at the bottom with a slowly declining central level". The RMB's internal appreciation power is accumulating, and the potential rebound of the US dollar is weaker than the previous cycle [4]. - The expectation of Fed rate cuts in December exceeds 80%, which supports the repair of stock index valuations. However, market sentiment is cautious, and the short - term stock index is expected to run strongly and gradually fill the previous gap [5]. - The short - term trading sentiment of treasury bonds is weak, but the medium - term outlook is optimistic [6]. Commodities Metals - Precious metals are expected to see their price centers rise in the medium - to - long term. Short - term attention should be paid to the December Fed rate - cut expectation and the 60 - day moving average [9][12]. - Copper prices are likely to fluctuate around 86,000 yuan/ton, and downstream enterprises in need of inventory are recommended to buy futures for hedging [13][16]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level; alumina is expected to run weakly; cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level; zinc is expected to oscillate; nickel and stainless steel may continue to correct; tin is expected to oscillate at a high level; lithium carbonate futures prices will fluctuate greatly; industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to oscillate weakly; lead is expected to oscillate [16][17][20]. Black Commodities - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate within a range with bottom support [27][29]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait for the basis to repair before considering short - selling [29][30]. - Coking coal and coke: The short - term downward space of coking coal is limited, and the far - month 05 contract has medium - to - long - term long - allocation potential; for coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward trend [31][32]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly [33]. Energy and Chemicals - LPG is expected to oscillate, with overall fundamentals changing little and slightly weakening [34][35]. - PTA - PX: The aromatics blending - oil logic is weakening. PTA's supply - demand margin has improved, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [37][39]. - MEG - bottle chips: The overall supply - demand situation is still surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies [40][42]. - Methanol: The rebound height of the 01 contract is limited, and it is recommended to hold short - call options and conduct reverse spreads [43][44]. - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level, with supply pressure marginally relieved but weak demand [46][47]. - PE is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [49][50]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price may fall if the US - South Korea pure benzene trading lacks continuity [51]. - Fuel oil: The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil has stabilized and rebounded, but it is still bearish in the future; the cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened, but the overall driving force is still upward [51][53]. - Asphalt: The short - term price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - allocation opportunity of BU2603 [54][55]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate at a low level. Soda ash is mainly cost - priced; glass is affected by cold - repair expectations; caustic soda has supply pressure and weak demand [55][57][58]. Pulp and Paper - Pulp prices are still likely to decline, while the price of offset paper has received some support from paper mills' price increases [58][59]. Others - Logs: The 01 contract is expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to consider short - selling on rallies and 01 - 03 reverse spreads [61][62]. - Propylene is expected to maintain a weak pattern [63][64]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - US economic data: September PPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month, core PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month; ADP data showed a weekly average decrease of 13,500 private - sector jobs in the past four weeks; September retail sales increased by 0.2% month - on - month [1][4][5]. - Fed officials' statements and related news: Some Fed officials' statements strengthened the expectation of a December rate cut; there are speculations about the Fed Chair nominee [1][4]. - Geopolitical events: Ukraine agreed to the core terms of the US - proposed plan, and the situation in the Red Sea is related to the shipping market [1]. - Exchange rate: On - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rose above 7.09 [3]. Core Logic - Overseas: The US employment data is divided, and the market focuses on November employment data and the Fed Chair appointment. Domestic: The economic fundamentals are cooling, but the policy is firm, and the market expects more policy support [2]. Commodities Metals Precious Metals - Market performance: COMEX gold and silver futures prices fluctuated slightly; SHFE gold and silver futures prices rose [9]. - Rate - cut expectations and fund holdings: The market expects an over 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in December; long - term funds increased their holdings of gold and silver ETFs [10][11]. - Key points of attention: US government data release, Fed economic beige book, and Thanksgiving holiday trading arrangements [11]. Base Metals - Copper: Overnight copper prices in different markets showed different trends; copper inventories in different exchanges changed; the US PPI was in line with expectations, and copper prices were affected by rate - cut expectations [13][14][16]. - Aluminum and related products: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level; alumina is expected to run weakly; cast aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [16][17]. - Zinc: Zinc prices oscillated, with high smelting - end ore - grabbing and reduced TC, and the market is in a state of long - short divergence [17][18]. - Nickel and stainless steel: Nickel and stainless - steel prices corrected, affected by Indonesian policies and cost support; nickel - iron prices continued to decline, and stainless - steel exports had some positive factors [18][20]. - Tin: Tin prices oscillated at a high level, with supply problems and Congo - Kinshasa unrest affecting the market [20][21]. - Lithium carbonate: Futures prices rose, and the market is concerned about supply and demand changes and battery - cell production schedules [22]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon: Futures prices showed different trends, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the trading logic potentially shifting to supply - demand fundamentals [23][24]. - Lead: Lead prices continued to decline, with raw - material shortages in the smelting end and potential import increases to balance the market [25][26]. Black Commodities Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market performance: Prices rose slightly, and the increase was accompanied by position reduction, affected by iron ore [27]. - Core logic: The supply and demand of steel improved marginally, with inventory slowly decreasing; iron ore prices oscillated, and the profit of steel enterprises decreased, increasing the risk of negative feedback [27][28]. Iron Ore - Market information: Iron ore prices were strong, with port and overseas inventories changing; the Fed's dovish statements increased the rate - cut probability [29]. - Core logic: Prices oscillated widely, affected by coking coal; the iron - ore market was balanced in the short term, with structural shortages of medium - grade ore [30]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market information: Coking coal prices in Shanxi decreased; the Fed official advocated rate cuts; relevant coal - mine policies were introduced [30]. - Core logic: Coking coal prices continued to decline, with supply increasing and demand weakening in the short term, but there is support in the medium term; for coke, it is not recommended to blindly short [31][32]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Market performance: Prices oscillated. - Core logic: The profitability of steel mills declined, iron - alloy demand is expected to decrease, and they face high - inventory and weak - demand problems [33]. Energy and Chemicals LPG - Market performance: LPG futures prices oscillated, and spot prices changed slightly. - Core logic: Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and the market was affected by crude - oil price fluctuations [34][35]. PTA - PX - Market information: PX supply increased, and PTA had many shutdowns; polyester demand was expected to remain high [37][38]. - Core logic: The aromatics blending - oil logic weakened, and PTA's supply - demand margin improved, with attention paid to restart plans and blending - oil dynamics [37][39]. MEG - Bottle Chips - Market information: MEG inventory was stable, and some devices restarted or shut down; polyester demand was expected to remain high [40][42]. - Core logic: The supply - demand situation was still surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies [40][42]. Methanol - Market performance: Methanol futures prices oscillated around 2000 yuan/ton. - Core logic: The port pressure in December is expected to increase, and the rebound height of the 01 contract is limited [43][44]. PP - Market performance: PP futures prices declined, and spot prices were weak. - Core logic: Supply pressure was marginally relieved, but demand was weak after the "Double Eleven" [46][47]. PE - Market performance: PE futures prices declined, and spot prices changed slightly. - Core logic: The supply - strong and demand - weak situation continued, with the end of the agricultural - film peak season [49][50]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market performance: Futures prices showed different trends, and spot prices changed slightly. - Core logic: The market was affected by the aromatics blending - oil speculation, and the long - term price may fall if the US - South Korea pure benzene trading lacks continuity [51]. Fuel Oil - Market performance: High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel - oil futures prices showed different trends. - Core logic: The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil is bearish; the cracking spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has upward driving force [51][53]. Asphalt - Market performance: Asphalt futures and spot prices changed slightly. - Core logic: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the long - allocation opportunity of BU2603 [54][55]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Market performance: Futures prices of glass, soda ash, and caustic soda showed different trends. - Core logic: Soda ash is cost - priced; glass is affected by cold - repair expectations; caustic soda has supply pressure and weak demand [55][57][58]. Pulp and Paper - Market performance: Pulp and offset - paper futures prices showed different trends. - Core logic: Pulp prices are likely to decline, while offset - paper prices are supported by paper mills' price increases [58][59]. Others Logs - Market performance: Log futures prices declined, and spot prices generally decreased. - Core logic: The 01 contract is weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies and consider 01 - 03 reverse spreads [61][62]. Propylene - Market performance: Propylene futures prices declined, and spot prices increased slightly. - Core logic: Propylene supply is loose, and demand is affected by PP and other downstream industries, with an expected weak - oscillation pattern [63][64].