Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for Greentown Management Holdings (9979.HK) with a current stock price of HKD 3.12 [1]. Core Views - The competitive landscape in the construction management industry is stabilizing, with a return to rational growth, presenting incremental opportunities. Despite increased competition and a decline in new contract signings for 2024, the market share of leading firms continues to expand, and the focus is shifting towards risk management and profitability [6][10]. - The company is experiencing positive operational signals, with a high dividend yield providing valuation support. The company has maintained a high payout ratio and is expected to implement interim dividends for the first time in 2025, with a dividend yield significantly higher than mainstream property management companies [20][51]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The construction management industry is witnessing a return to rational competition, with the market stabilizing as new entrants have diminished. The focus is now on the leading firms, which are prioritizing risk control and profitability [6][10]. - Urban renewal and supportive policies for quality housing are expected to create structural growth opportunities within the industry, despite a current decline in single-unit construction fees [10][18]. Operational Performance - Greentown Management Holdings has a robust order book, with a total construction area of 12.65 million square meters as of the first half of 2025. The company has seen a year-on-year increase in new contract values and construction areas [20][23]. - The company’s cash flow is improving, with a significant increase in operating cash flow and a high cash reserve, allowing for a strong dividend policy [51][55]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 show a decline to HKD 29.94 billion, with a subsequent recovery expected in 2026 and 2027. The gross margin is anticipated to remain around 40% in 2025, with a potential increase in the following years [5][58]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 has been slightly reduced to HKD 0.28, but the company is expected to recover to HKD 0.31 in 2026 and HKD 0.34 in 2027, reflecting its competitive advantages in the construction management sector [60].
绿城管理控股（09979）：行业竞争趋于理性，经营筑底分红较高