Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price raised to HKD 39.50, indicating a potential upside of 25.1% from the current price of HKD 31.58 [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid advancement of the overseas development of SSGJ-707, with Pfizer planning to initiate at least seven clinical trials soon, including two global Phase III trials targeting first-line squamous and non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and metastatic colorectal cancer [6]. - The company plans to spin off its consumer pharmaceutical business, Mandi International, to focus on its core prescription and innovative drug sectors, which is expected to generate short-term investment returns and support the development of innovative products [6]. - The report expresses increased confidence in the global development potential of SSGJ-707 due to strong clinical data and support from partners, leading to an adjustment in long-term milestone payment forecasts [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 7,816 million in 2023, RMB 9,108 million in 2024, and a significant increase to RMB 17,470 million in 2025, followed by a decline to RMB 12,821 million in 2026 and RMB 12,018 million in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 91.8% in 2025 [5][14]. - Net profit is expected to rise sharply to RMB 8,057 million in 2025, with a corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 3.34, before declining in subsequent years [5][14]. - The company’s market capitalization is reported at approximately HKD 75.55 billion, with a year-to-date price change of 419.41% [4]. Valuation Model - The discounted cash flow (DCF) model estimates the equity value at approximately RMB 87.35 billion, translating to a per-share value of HKD 39.50, based on a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 9.4% [10][11].
三生制药（01530）：707海外开发快速推进，蔓迪计划分拆聚焦创新主业；上调目标价