Teck(US:TECK) Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-28 03:20Report Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On Hold [8] - Options: Short Put [8] Core View - Recently, due to fluctuations in the market's expectations of the Fed's December interest rate cut and geopolitical factors in some regions, copper prices have declined. However, as copper prices fall, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased. With more price-fixing by downstream enterprises, some short-hedging positions in the processing end have been closed, providing support for copper prices at the 85,000 yuan/ton level. Currently, one can buy for hedging at the 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton level and sell for hedging above 89,000 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - Futures Quotes: On November 27, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 87,200 yuan/ton and closed at 86,990 yuan/ton, a 0.46% change from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 86,800 yuan/ton and closed at 87,050 yuan/ton, a 0.02% decrease from the afternoon close [1]. - Spot Situation: According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the 2512 contract was 10 - 200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 105 yuan/ton, a 25 yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The price range of electrolytic copper was 86,910 - 87,260 yuan/ton. Import losses widened to over a thousand yuan, market trading became lighter, and both procurement and sales intentions declined. Due to copper prices returning to around 87,000 yuan/ton and month-end settlement factors, downstream procurement slowed. Supplies of Jinchuan and Guixi decreased, and some holders quoted a premium of 200 yuan/ton. Shanghai Jintun large plates with a premium of around 150 yuan/ton were quickly traded, indicating a tight supply of high-quality copper. The trading of flat copper was average with regional differences. As it entered the end of the month, there was still a demand for current-month invoices, and the trading of next-month invoices might be relatively dull [2]. - Important Information Summary: Geopolitically, Russian President Putin said that a US delegation will visit Moscow next week. He reiterated that Russia generally agrees to use the US list for resolving the Ukraine issue as the basis for future negotiations. He also stated that if the Ukrainian armed forces withdraw from the areas they currently control, Russia will stop military operations; otherwise, Russia will use military means to achieve its goals. In terms of interest rates, the European Central Bank released its October meeting minutes, explaining the reasons for keeping rates unchanged at that meeting, strengthening the market's expectation that the current interest rate cut cycle has ended. European Central Bank Governing Council member Kazaks said that given that inflation in the eurozone may still be higher than expected, it is too early to discuss another interest rate cut [3]. Supply Side - Mine End: On November 26, the Canadian government launched a national security review of the proposed merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources. The review will focus on the impact of the transaction on key minerals and related supply chains. Copper is considered a key mineral in Canada. Teck Resources and Anglo American have promised to invest approximately C$4.5 billion over five years, but most of this (including the expansion project of the Highland Valley copper mine) was previously announced by Teck Resources. Anglo American also proposed to move its global headquarters from London to Vancouver and rename itself "Anglo Teck." Market insiders said that Canada still wants Anglo American to further relocate its headquarters to Canada [4]. - Smelting and Import: The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) Secretary-General Paul White said at the 2025 Asian World Copper Conference on November 27 that the global copper market will face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. Global copper mine production is expected to increase by 2.3% in 2026, while global apparent refined copper consumption is expected to increase by 2.1% in the coming year. White also said that the copper production growth rate is expected to slow to 0.9% in 2026, compared with a 3.4% growth rate expected in 2025. These data are consistent with the ICSG's previous forecast in its October statement. On November 26, Chilean copper giant Codelco made a record-high offer to Chinese copper buyers, causing some Chinese enterprises to announce that they will abandon next year's long-term contracts. The applicability of this benchmark offer to Chinese buyers has also raised more and more questions. According to three informed sources, Codelco's offer to Chinese buyers is $350 per ton higher than the LME price, a significant increase from the $89 per ton negotiated last year. This offer is a "take it or leave it" final proposal, and buyers are expected to make decisions starting next week [5]. Demand Side - Consumption: According to customs data, in October, China imported 1,155.1 tons of copper tubes, a 41.31% month-on-month increase and an 8.37% year-on-year decrease; the cumulative import volume was 15,585.2 tons, a 10.77% cumulative year-on-year decrease. In October, China exported 25,287.9 tons of copper tubes, a 2.33% month-on-month decrease and an 18.57% year-on-year decrease; the cumulative export volume was 309,326.6 tons, a 0.16% cumulative year-on-year increase [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 75.00 tons to 157,175 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons. On November 27, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 173,500 tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons compared with the previous week [7]. Strategy - Copper: Cautiously Bullish. Currently, one can buy for hedging at the 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton level and sell for hedging above 89,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Arbitrage: On Hold [8] - Options: Short Put [8]