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降息预期回升,铜价企稳反弹
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices stabilized and rebounded due to the significant increase in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, the normalization of the global copper supply chain after the premium issue of US copper tariffs subsided, and the clear tone of China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies boosting the demand in the non - ferrous metal market. The fact that major non - US economies did not retaliate against the US also slightly improved the global economic growth outlook. Fundamentally, the tight balance of global refined copper persists, with weak inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and the near - month structure turning to flat water [2][8]. - Overall, after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, major non - US economies did not retaliate against the US. The market is optimistic about the Fed's rate cut in September. China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies will boost the non - ferrous metal market demand and support the domestic economic base. Both internal and external macro factors are favorable for copper prices. Fundamentally, overseas mine supply remains tight, domestic inventory accumulation during the off - season is limited, and the release of global refined copper production capacity is slow. Copper prices are expected to enter a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - Price Changes: From August 1st to August 8th, LME copper rose from $9,633/ton to $9,768/ton, a 1.40% increase; COMEX copper rose from 444.3 cents/pound to 448.5 cents/pound, a 0.95% increase; SHFE copper rose from 78,400 yuan/ton to 78,490 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase; international copper rose from 69,530 yuan/ton to 69,650 yuan/ton, a 0.17% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.14 to 8.04, and the LME spot premium/discount decreased from - $49.25/ton to - $69.55/ton, a 41.22% change. The Shanghai spot premium/discount decreased from 175 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Changes: As of August 8th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai Bonded Area increased to 577,405 tons, a 5.18% increase from August 1st. LME inventory increased by 14,100 tons (9.95%), COMEX inventory increased by 4,459 short tons (1.72%), SHFE inventory increased by 9,390 tons (12.95%), and Shanghai Bonded Area inventory increased by 500 tons (0.67%) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Price Rebound Reasons: The significant increase in the Fed's rate - cut expectation in September, the normalization of the global copper supply chain, China's policies boosting demand, and the improved global economic growth outlook due to no retaliation from major economies against the US all contributed to the copper price rebound. Fundamentally, the tight balance of global refined copper persists, with weak domestic inventory accumulation during the off - season [8]. - Inventory Situation: As of August 8th, the total global inventory increased to 577,400 tons. LME copper inventory increase led to the LME0 - 3 turning to a contango structure, and the cancelled warrant ratio slightly decreased to 7.1%. SHFE inventory increased by 9,000 tons, and Shanghai Bonded Area inventory was basically flat. The Yangshan copper bill of lading premium fell to around $50. Overseas supplies flowed back to LME Asian warehouses and some entered China, increasing imports. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.04 due to the short - term depreciation of the US dollar after the rate - cut expectation increased [8]. - Macroeconomic Situation: In the US, inflation expectations increased, credit access became more difficult, but the employment outlook improved. Trump nominated a new Fed governor who is expected to be dovish. India may not retaliate against US tariffs. Fed official Kashkari believes that the US economy is slowing and rate cuts may be appropriate, with a 93.4% probability of a rate cut in September according to CME. The US service industry index showed signs of stagnation, and the risk of stagflation is rising. In China, exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year (in US dollars), and the total import and export value in the first seven months increased by 3.5% year - on - year, with high - tech product trade growing strongly [9]. - Supply and Demand Situation: Overseas, Codelco's Chilean mine has not restarted, and the Panama project may not resume production this year. Six overseas mining companies have lowered their production targets. In China, the production of large and medium - sized smelters was high in July but is expected to decline slightly in August. In terms of demand, power grid investment weakened, the开工 rate of wire and cable enterprises decreased, the consumption of the wind and solar industries is expected to decline, and the new energy vehicle market is in the off - season but still has year - on - year growth. Overall, domestic demand decreased slightly month - on - month but remained resilient year - on - year, and the market maintained a tight balance [10]. 3. Industry News - Codelco's El Teniente copper mine earthquake may be caused by mining activities. The company has applied to restart part of the mine and is investigating the cause. If the mine remains closed, it will exacerbate the global copper supply shortage and increase Codelco's financial pressure. Restarting the mine requires convincing regulators and unions of the stability of the entire underground operation area [12]. - Teck Resources' Q2 2025 copper production was 109,000 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease and a 2.8% quarter - on - quarter increase. Antamina's production decreased due to an accident and lower ore treatment volume, while Highland Valley Copper's production increased. Antamina's 2025 copper production is expected to be between 80,000 - 90,000 tons. Quebrada Blanca's Q2 production was 52,700 tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase and a 24.6% quarter - on - quarter increase. The QB port facility's loading machine malfunction is expected to last until H1 2026, and production is not expected to be affected. QBII's 2025 copper production guidance is revised down to 210,000 - 230,000 tons [13]. - The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China decreased slightly last week due to the decline in the spot premium of domestic copper and weak restocking by cable enterprises in the off - season. The processing fees in different regions vary. The price of 8mm T3 low - oxygen copper rods in South and Southwest China increased by $50 - 100/ton compared with last week. The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises is expected to be under slight pressure in mid - August [14][15]. 4. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and SHFE, and other related data such as basis, premium, and TC [16][18][21][22][26][27][29][32][35][38]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-24 19:30
Production Guidance - Teck lowered production guidance for its flagship Chilean mine [1] - The lowered guidance represents a setback to the company's efforts to become a major copper producer [1]
Teck Resources extends mine life at Highland Valley to 2046
Proactiveinvestors NA· 2025-07-24 16:05
Company Overview - Proactive is a financial news publisher that provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company has a team of experienced and qualified news journalists who produce independent content [2] Market Focus - Proactive specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - The news team delivers insights across various sectors including biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [3] Technology Adoption - Proactive is recognized for its forward-looking approach and enthusiastic adoption of technology to enhance workflows [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring that all content is edited and authored by humans [5]
Teck(TECK) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-24 16:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $722 million for Q2 2025, reflecting a 3% increase compared to the same period last year, primarily due to strong performance in the zinc segment and reduced corporate overhead costs [28][29][30] - Year-to-date, the company has returned over $1.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with $548 million returned in Q2 alone [29][39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the copper segment, gross profit before depreciation and amortization declined by 3% to $673 million, attributed to lower copper prices and higher operating costs, despite stable production levels at 109,000 tonnes [31][33] - The zinc segment saw a significant improvement, with gross profit before depreciation and amortization increasing by 137% to $159 million, driven by higher byproduct revenues and lower operating costs [36][37] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company acknowledged risks to production guidance for QB due to ongoing TMS development work, revising its outlook to 210,000 to 230,000 tonnes for the year [22][21] - The Highland Valley Copper mine life extension project is expected to produce an average of 132,000 tonnes of copper annually over its life, with capital costs estimated between CAD 2.1 billion to CAD 2.4 billion [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on advancing its copper growth strategy while returning cash to shareholders, with plans to double copper production by the end of the decade [9][23] - The sanctioning of the Highland Valley Copper mine life extension project is seen as foundational to the company's future copper production growth [23][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in overcoming current operational constraints related to TMS development, maintaining guidance for 2026 production levels [46][50] - The company remains committed to safety and sustainability, achieving recognition as one of Corporate Knight's Best 50 Corporate Citizens in Canada for the 19th consecutive year [12] Other Important Information - The company has a strong liquidity position with $8.9 billion available, including $4.8 billion in cash, and has reduced its debt by $2 billion since 2024 [40][41] - The company is actively working on optimizing its operations and exploring growth opportunities through capital-efficient projects [26][27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tailings issue on QB and future investments - Management acknowledged that TMS development work has limited online time for QB but expects to resolve these issues without additional capital investment next year [46][49] Question: CapEx guidance for the second half of the year - Management confirmed that the increased CapEx guidance is primarily due to the sanctioning of the Highland Valley project and ongoing TMS development costs [54][56] Question: Ship loader repairs and CapEx impact - Management indicated that repairs to the ship loader are ongoing, with no production impact due to alternative shipping arrangements [64][66] Question: Sequencing of Zafranal and San Nicolas projects - Management noted that Zafranal is more advanced in permitting but both projects are considered options for future development [67][68] Question: Technical report for Highland Valley extension - A technical report is expected to be published in August, detailing the throughput and production profile for the Highland Valley project [70][72] Question: Incremental CapEx for QB's TMF - Management clarified the distinction between project CapEx and sustaining CapEx, emphasizing the ongoing nature of TMS development costs [100][101]
Teck(TECK) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-24 16:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $722 million for Q2 2025, reflecting a 3% increase compared to the same period last year, primarily due to strong performance in the Trail operations and reduced corporate overhead costs [27][28][30] - Year-to-date, the company has returned a total of $1.1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with $548 million returned in Q2 alone [28][39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the copper segment, gross profit before depreciation and amortization declined by 3% to $673 million, attributed to lower copper prices and higher operating costs, despite stable production levels at 109,000 tonnes [30][32] - The zinc segment saw a significant improvement, with gross profit before depreciation and amortization increasing by 137% to $159 million, driven by higher byproduct revenues and lower operating costs [36][37] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company acknowledged a reduction in settlement pricing adjustments amounting to $91 million, impacting overall financial performance [29] - The net cash unit cost for copper improved to $2.02 per pound, while the net cash unit cost for zinc decreased to $0.49 per pound [32][36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on advancing its copper growth strategy, with the sanctioning of the Highland Valley Copper Mine life extension project, expected to produce an average of 132,000 tonnes of copper annually [7][16] - The company aims to double copper production by the end of the decade, supported by ongoing growth projects in Peru and Mexico [25][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in overcoming current operational challenges related to the TMS development work at QB, maintaining guidance for 2026 production levels [47][48] - The company remains committed to balancing investment in growth with cash returns to shareholders, emphasizing a strong balance sheet and liquidity of $8.9 billion [40][42] Other Important Information - The company was recognized as one of Corporate Knight's 2025 Best 50 Corporate Citizens in Canada, marking the 19th consecutive year of receiving this accolade [11] - The company has reduced its debt by $2 billion since 2024, maintaining a strong financial position with investment-grade credit ratings [41] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tailings issue on QB and future investments - Management confirmed that the TMS development work has limited online time for QB but expects to resolve these issues without additional capital investment next year [47][49] Question: Confidence in achieving production guidance for 2026 - Management expressed confidence in reaching the low end of the guidance for 2026, citing operational parameters and past performance as indicators of future success [50][52] Question: CapEx guidance for the second half of the year - Management acknowledged the need to spend $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion in the second half of the year, primarily due to the sanctioning of the Highland Valley project and ongoing TMS development costs [55][56] Question: Ship loader repairs and CapEx impact - Management indicated that repairs to the ship loader are ongoing, with no production impact due to alternative shipping arrangements [66][68] Question: Sequencing of projects for Zafranal and San Nicolas - Management noted that Zafranal is more advanced in permitting but emphasized that both projects are options for future development [70][71] Question: Technical report for Highland Valley extension - Management confirmed that a technical report will be published in August, detailing the throughput and production profile for the Highland Valley project [74][76]
Teck(TECK) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-07-24 15:00
Financial Highlights - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 3% to $722 million, reflecting higher profitability at Trail Operations and lower corporate overhead costs, partially offset by lower copper and zinc prices and higher operating costs at QB & Highland Valley[10, 28, 30] - Profit from continuing operations before taxes increased by 525% to $125 million[10, 28] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share from continuing operations increased by 217% to $038[10, 28] Production and Operations - Copper production guidance revised downwards for Quebrada Blanca (QB) from 230-270 thousand tonnes to 210-230 thousand tonnes, impacting total copper production guidance, which is revised to 470-525 thousand tonnes[21] - Molybdenum production guidance revised downwards for Quebrada Blanca from 30-45 thousand tonnes to 17-25 thousand tonnes, impacting total molybdenum production guidance, which is revised to 38-54 thousand tonnes[21] - Red Dog zinc sales above guidance, with significantly lower net cash unit costs[10] Capital Allocation and Growth - $22 billion of the $325 billion authorized share buyback program has been completed[10] - Sanctioned Highland Valley Copper Mine Life Extension (HVC MLE) project, extending mine life to 2046, with a project capital estimate of C$21-24 billion[10, 20] - Sustaining capital expenditures for copper increased by C$340 million, resulting in a revised total of C$940-1010 million[21] - Growth capital expenditures for copper increased by C$300-340 million, resulting in a revised total of C$1040-1170 million[22] Market Outlook - The company expects further policy support in China during Q3, with an expansion of consumer subsidies for goods and an acceleration of infrastructure projects, which should help underpin metals demand[83] - Copper market fundamentals indicate that investment in copper concentrate supply hasn't matched demand, and the company expects a more electricity-intensive phase of global growth in the coming years[89] - Zinc market fundamentals indicate that 2025 is set for mine supply growth after several lean years, and zinc projects struggle to compete for capital[91]
Teck Resources Ltd (TECK) Q2 Earnings Surpass Estimates
ZACKS· 2025-07-24 12:06
Core Viewpoint - Teck Resources Ltd reported quarterly earnings of $0.27 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.20 per share, but down from $0.58 per share a year ago, indicating a significant earnings surprise of +35.00% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $1.46 billion for the quarter ended June 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.73% and down from $2.83 billion year-over-year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Teck Resources has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times and topped consensus revenue estimates two times [2] Stock Performance - Teck Resources shares have declined approximately 4.8% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's gain of 8.1% [3] - The current Zacks Rank for Teck Resources is 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market in the near future [6] Future Outlook - The consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is $0.35 on revenues of $2.14 billion, while for the current fiscal year, the estimate is $1.45 on revenues of $7.46 billion [7] - The outlook for the Mining - Miscellaneous industry, where Teck Resources operates, is currently in the bottom 34% of Zacks industries, which may impact stock performance [8]
Teck Resources (TECK) Earnings Call Presentation
2025-07-24 11:00
Business Overview and Strategy - Teck is focusing on metals essential for the energy transition, aiming to be a leading provider of responsibly-produced critical minerals[13, 15] - The company is balancing growth with cash returns to shareholders, focusing on core excellence, value-driven growth, and resilience[13, 15] - Teck's strategy revolves around four pillars: metals for the energy transition, core excellence, value-driven growth, and resilience[14, 15] Operational Performance and Outlook - Teck anticipates copper production to increase from 446kt in 2024 to between 470kt and 525kt in 2025[27] - The company projects a copper EBITDA margin expansion from 42% in 2024 to 52% in 2025[27] - The net cash unit cost for copper is expected to improve from $220 per pound in 2024 to between $190 and $205 per pound in 2025[27] - The company has revised its 2025 copper production guidance for Quebrada Blanca (QB) to between 210kt and 230kt, a decrease of 20kt to 40kt from the previous guidance[44] Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns - Teck is committed to returning 30-100% of available cash flow to shareholders[19, 29] - Approximately $60 billion has been returned to shareholders since 2020, with ~$22 billion in authorized share buybacks completed from a $325 billion program (~70%)[29] - The company maintains a base dividend of $050 per share per year paid quarterly[20, 29] Growth Projects and Balance Sheet - The Highland Valley Mine Life Extension (HVC MLE) project is sanctioned, extending the mine life to 2046, with average copper production of 132ktpa over the life of mine[33, 34] - The project capital estimate at sanction for HVC MLE is between C$21 billion and C$24 billion[34] - Teck has a strong liquidity position of $48 billion as of July 23, 2025, and net debt of C$02 billion as of June 30, 2025[37]
Teck Reports Unaudited Second Quarter Results for 2025
Globenewswire· 2025-07-24 05:03
Core Viewpoint - Teck Resources Limited has achieved significant growth in copper production and continues to return cash to shareholders through share buybacks, while focusing on disciplined, value-accretive growth strategies [2][5]. Financial Summary - Revenue for Q2 2025 was CAD$2,023 million, up from CAD$1,802 million in Q2 2024, representing an increase of 12.3% [4]. - Gross profit for Q2 2025 was CAD$471 million, compared to CAD$418 million in Q2 2024, reflecting a 12.7% increase [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was CAD$722 million, slightly higher than CAD$703 million in the same period last year [5]. - Profit from continuing operations attributable to shareholders was CAD$206 million in Q2 2025, significantly up from CAD$21 million in Q2 2024 [5]. Copper Production and Business Updates - Copper production in Q2 2025 was 109,100 tonnes, with 52,700 tonnes coming from the Quebrada Blanca (QB) operation, remaining stable compared to the previous year [5]. - The Highland Valley Copper Mine Life Extension project has received Board sanction and regulatory approval, extending the mine's life from 2028 to 2046 with an average production of 132,000 tonnes of copper per year [5][10]. - The company has revised its 2025 annual copper production guidance to 470,000 to 525,000 tonnes from a previous estimate of 490,000 to 565,000 tonnes [15]. Shareholder Returns - Teck returned approximately CAD$1.0 billion to shareholders through share buybacks from January 1 to July 23, 2025, including CAD$487 million in Q2 2025 [5]. - The company has completed CAD$2.2 billion of its CAD$3.25 billion authorized share buyback program [5]. Cost and Guidance Updates - The net cash unit costs for copper have been revised to US$1.90–$2.05 per pound from US$1.65–$1.95 per pound due to lower production and increased costs [15]. - The 2025 annual growth capital expenditure guidance has been updated to CAD$1,040–$1,170 million, reflecting the impact of the Highland Valley Copper Mine Life Extension project [15]. Safety and Sustainability - Teck reported a low High-Potential Incident Frequency rate of 0.09 for the six months ended June 30, 2025, below the 2024 annual rate of 0.12 [16]. - The company was recognized as one of the Best 50 Corporate Citizens in Canada for the 19th consecutive year [16].
Teck Announces Construction of Highland Valley Copper Mine Life Extension to Proceed
Globenewswire· 2025-07-24 04:45
Core Viewpoint - Teck Resources Limited has received board approval for the Highland Valley Copper Mine Life Extension Project, which aims to extend the life of Canada's largest copper mine and support future copper production [1][2] Project Overview - The Highland Valley Copper Mine Life Extension (HVC MLE) is a brownfield project that will extend operations from 2028 to 2046 [5] - The project is expected to generate an average copper production of 132,000 tonnes per year over its lifespan [9] - Construction is set to begin in August 2025, following the issuance of necessary permits in June 2025 [6] Financial Aspects - The capital investment for the project is estimated to be between $2.1 billion and $2.4 billion, marking it as the largest critical minerals investment in British Columbia's history [7][9] - The project is anticipated to create approximately 2,900 jobs and contribute an additional $435 million to GDP during the construction phase [9] Production and Operations - The production profile will consist of three distinct mining phases, with total material movement expected to increase significantly during the initial phase [10][15] - The average total tonnes mined will be approximately 50 million tonnes per annum, with variations based on ore hardness [10] Community and Stakeholder Engagement - Teck emphasizes collaboration with Indigenous governments and local communities to ensure responsible development and long-term benefits [2][13] - The project has been recognized as a significant step for Indigenous governance and community participation in resource management [13][14] Strategic Importance - The HVC MLE project is foundational to Teck's strategy to double copper production by the end of the decade, driven by strong demand for copper as a critical mineral for energy transition [2][9] - The project is expected to strengthen Canada's critical minerals sector and enhance the country's position as a key supplier of essential metals [16]