国信期货苹果周报：多空博弈，高位震荡-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current apple futures main contract AP2601 is in a high - level oscillation. The inventory is lower than the same period last year, the cold - storage shipment volume is gradually increasing, and the export volume in October increased month - on - month. With the approaching of Christmas and New Year's Day, the festival boost effect is obvious. The substitution effect of seasonal fruits is greatly weakened, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand. The decline in production and quality strongly supports the price. The cost of storage may increase, and the prices of different - quality apple sources will be significantly differentiated in the later stage. The futures contract may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [7][11][15][19][37] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The apple futures main contract AP2601 is in high - level oscillation [7] 3.2 Supply - side Situation - As of November 27, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory is 7.2935 billion tons, and the cold - storage inventory ratio is about 55.38%, 7.84 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 12.40%. The cold - storage inventory in Shandong production area is basically completed, with only a very small increase in individual cold - storages, mainly other varieties such as Cream Fuji and Venus [11][37] 3.3 Demand - side Situation - Cold - storage Shipment Volume: As of November 27, 2025, the national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.31 percentage points, and the de - inventory rate is 0.87%. The cold - storage capacity ratio in Shandong production area is 55.61%, with a weekly decrease of 0.13 percentage points, and that in Shaanxi is 53.89%, with a weekly decrease of 0.67 percentage points [16][37] - Export Volume: In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples is about 80,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04%. The listing time of new - season apples is postponed, resulting in a significant year - on - year decrease in the export volume of new - season apples in October [19] - Substitute Fruit Prices: Not elaborated in detail in the content - Origin Spot Price: As of November 28, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong is stable. The off - cold - storage transactions are basically completed. The remaining acquisition market is for a very small amount of tail - end products, mainly for market distribution after the transaction. The cold - storage transactions are for some medium - and small - sized fruits. The price of 65 - 70 fruits of cold - storage farmers is 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per catty, and that of 75 fruits of merchants is about 3.0 yuan per catty. The transactions of first - and second - grade goods above 80 have not started yet. The intended transaction price of first - and second - grade farmer's slice - red apples above 80 is 3.7 - 4.0 yuan per catty, and the price range of striped apples is 4.0 - 4.7 yuan per catty; the asking price of merchants' goods is relatively high, with the intended price of first - and second - grade goods above 80 being 4.2 - 5.2 yuan per catty (not yet traded, and the cold - storage quotation is calculated by adding 0.2 - 0.4 yuan per catty of profit to the inventory cost) [33] 3.4 Market Outlook - The festival boost effect of Christmas and New Year's Day is obvious, and the substitution effect of seasonal fruits is greatly weakened, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand. The decline in production and quality strongly supports the price. The cost of storage may increase due to quality problems. The new - season apple production reduction pattern is set, which provides strong support for the cost side. The prices of different - quality apple sources will be significantly differentiated in the later stage, and the futures contract may show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [37]