LIUGONG(SZ:000528) Guohai Securities·2025-11-29 15:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - LiuGong is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the excavator and loader markets, with a strong focus on electrification and globalization [2][6] - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 60 billion yuan by 2030, with international revenue accounting for over 60% and a net profit margin of no less than 8% [29] Summary by Sections Company Overview - LiuGong has been a leader in the loader market and has a strong presence in the excavator sector, with a history of over 67 years in the engineering machinery industry [14][15] - The company has expanded its product offerings and established a global presence, with subsidiaries in North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East [15] Market Performance - As of November 28, 2025, LiuGong's stock price is 11.95 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 24.29 billion yuan [4] - The company's performance over the past 12 months shows a 10.5% increase, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which declined by 3.5% [4] Product Analysis - LiuGong's main products include loaders and excavators, with a comprehensive product range that includes electric models and various specifications [18] - The domestic market share for loaders is expected to remain the highest in 2024, while the excavator market share is gradually increasing [18] Industry Trends - The excavator market is expected to enter a new cycle driven by domestic recovery factors, including policy stimulation and large-scale engineering projects [6] - The electric loader market in China is projected to grow rapidly, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 50.1% from 2023 to 2028 [6] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for LiuGong from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 345 billion, 403 billion, and 460 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 17%, and 14% respectively [8] - The projected net profit for the same period is expected to reach 17 billion, 23 billion, and 31 billion yuan, with growth rates of 31%, 35%, and 32% respectively [8] Strategic Initiatives - LiuGong's "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines strategic goals to enhance its operational capabilities and product competitiveness, focusing on sustainable growth engines [29][32] - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan to motivate key personnel and align their interests with the company's long-term performance [30][31]