煤焦周度观点-20251130

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal online auction failure rate remains high, coke enterprises still expect a continuous decline in raw material spot prices, and their purchasing sentiment is relatively low. Downstream blast furnace production has decreased again on a week - on - week basis [4]. - The restoration of origin supply is still slow, but Mongolia maintains a high vehicle - passing volume, and the market still has strong expectations for the recovery of future source production. There are still differences in the overseas December interest rate decision, but the expectation of interest rate cuts has increased this week, and the overseas risk appetite has increased to some extent before Thanksgiving, with the US dollar index also falling on a week - on - week basis [5]. - The regulatory attitude of the National Development and Reform Commission indicates that coal is currently in a supply - guarantee cycle. The market has strong expectations for the recovery of future coal supply. Coupled with the blast furnace start - up data that has reached a phased peak, the demand space for coal and coke is also suppressed to some extent, causing the previously high valuation of coal and coke to decline significantly recently [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes - Supply: FW raw coal is 856.08 (+4.63), independent coking plants' daily average is 63.76 (+1.09); FW clean coal is 438.75 (+4.91), steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average is 46.32 (+0.10) [7]. - Demand: The hot metal output is 234.68 (-1.6) [7]. - Inventory: MS total inventory increases by 34.8, mine raw coal increases by 17.4, mine clean coal increases by 38.0, independent coking decreases by 5.6, independent coking inventory decreases by 27.9, steel mills increase by 3.2, steel mill coking increases by 4.2, ports increase by 6.5, ports increase by 3.0, and FW port increases by 0.3 [7]. - Profit: The profit of commercial coal is 559 (-28), and the average profit of coking enterprises is 46 (+27) [7]. - Warehouse Receipt: The warehouse receipt of Meng 5 in Tangshan is 1190, and the warehouse receipt of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke is 1621 [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - Supply - Weekly: It includes data on the start - up rate of 523 sample mines, FW raw coal production, daily average clean coal production of 523 sample mines, and FW clean coal production [9]. - Supply - Monthly: It shows the monthly production data of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal [11]. - Supply - Mongolia Coal Customs Clearance: It presents the customs clearance volume data of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports, as well as the total customs clearance volume of the three ports [13][16][17][19]. - Inventory - Pithead: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines increased by 12.34 tons week - on - week to 168.15 tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 9.56 tons week - on - week to 107.55 tons [24]. - Inventory - Port: This week, the coking coal port inventory is 294.5 tons, an increase of 3 tons week - on - week [26]. - Inventory - Coking Plant: It includes data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises, and the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants in different regions [29][31]. - Inventory - By Capacity - Available Days: It shows the inventory available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants with different production capacities [33]. - Inventory - Steel Mill: It includes data on the inventory, available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their sample coking plants, and the inventory data of 247 steel enterprises' sample coking plants in different regions [34]. 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data - Supply - Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant: It shows the capacity utilization rate data of independent coking enterprises and 230 independent coking plants with different production capacities and in different regions [37]. - Supply - Capacity Utilization - Steel Mill: It presents the capacity utilization rate data of 247 steel enterprises [39]. - Supply - Output - Coking Plant: It includes the daily output data of 230 independent coking plants and all - sample independent coking enterprises [41]. - Supply - Output - Steel Mill: It shows the daily output data of 247 steel enterprises' sample coking plants [43]. - Inventory - Coking Plant: It includes the inventory data of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 230 independent coking plants [45]. - Inventory - Steel Mill: It includes the inventory, average available days data of 247 steel enterprises' sample coking plants, and the inventory and available days data in different regions [46][48][49]. - Inventory - All - Sample Summary: It shows the total inventory data of coke and the supply - demand difference data [51][53]. - Profit: It presents the profit data of coke, including the disk profit of ton - coke and the average profit of independent coking enterprises [56][57]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - Coking Coal Futures: It provides the futures market data of coking coal 2601 and coking coal 2605, including closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests [60]. - Coke Futures: It offers the futures market data of coke 2601 and coke 2605, including closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests [62]. - Coal and Coke Monthly Spread: It shows the monthly spread data of coking coal and coke [65]. - Coal and Coke Spot: It presents the spot price data of different types of coking coal and coke [68]. - Coal and Coke Basis: The coke disk has shown signs of supplementary decline this week, and the basis of the 01 contract has turned positive, reaching a new phased high [71].