SINYUAN ZM(SZ:301398) Guoxin Securities·2025-11-30 12:55Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the context of the Fed's increasing expectation of interest rate cuts and the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market risk appetite has recovered. The stock market oscillated upwards last week, with the technology sector that had adjusted recently performing well, and the consumer sector also showing good performance after the six - ministry plan was issued. The bond market was weak, and the yield increased significantly. In the convertible bond market, half of the individual convertible bonds closed up, the CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 0.27% for the whole week, and the arithmetic average parity increased 3.77%. The overall conversion premium rate decreased 4.65% compared with the previous week [1][7][8]. - Looking forward, with the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts rising again and important meetings in December, along with the continuous advancement of the industrial process and the upward revision of corporate profit expectations, the market still has room to rise further. For convertible bonds, at the current valuation level, the bond - bottom protection of debt - biased convertible bonds is limited. In the short term, it is still recommended to focus on high - volatility underlying stock varieties in balanced convertible bonds or low - premium and non - callable equity - biased individual bonds. In terms of direction, pay attention to growth sectors such as AI applications, energy storage, semiconductor equipment and materials, as well as sectors such as photovoltaics and refining that are expected to benefit from policy support [2][18]. Summary by Directory Market Trends Stock Market - In the context of the Fed's increasing expectation of interest rate cuts and the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market risk appetite recovered last week, and the stock market oscillated upwards. The technology and consumer sectors performed well, while the dividend sector had a slight adjustment. The A - share market showed different trends on each trading day, with changes in trading volume and active sectors [7]. - Most Shenwan primary industries closed up last week. The communication, electronics, comprehensive, media, and light manufacturing sectors had the highest increases, while the petroleum and petrochemical, banking, coal, and transportation sectors performed poorly [8]. Bond Market - Last week, affected by the strong sentiment in the stock market and relevant rumors such as the new fund sales regulations, the central bank's bond - buying scale, and public fund redemptions, the bond market was weak, and the yield increased significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.84% on Friday, up 2.46bp from the previous week [1][8]. Convertible Bond Market - Half of the individual convertible bonds closed up last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 0.27% for the whole week, the price median dropped 0.02%, the arithmetic average parity increased 3.77%, and the overall conversion premium rate decreased 4.65% compared with the previous week. The arithmetic average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of [90,100), [100,110), and [110,120) changed by - 2.04%, - 1.31%, and - 2.39% respectively, and were at the 85%, 96%, and 75% quantiles since 2023 [8]. - Most industries in the convertible bond market closed up last week. The steel, building materials, machinery, and electronics sectors performed well, while the social services, non - bank finance, petroleum and petrochemical, and coal sectors performed poorly [11][12]. - At the individual bond level, the convertible bonds of Dazhong (lithium mine), Chun 23 (consumer electronics), Tianyuan (landfill leachate treatment), Haohan (network intelligence), and Liyang (Ali chip concept) had the highest increases, while those of Bo 23 (non - ferrous metals), Wei 24 (solid waste treatment & call announced), Xinhua (lithium battery concept), Yanggu (rubber additives), and Huicheng (waste catalyst treatment) had the highest decreases [13]. - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 282.476 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 56.495 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [16]. Valuation Overview - As of last Friday (2025/11/28), in equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with parities in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 47.76%, 33.06%, 27.88%, 17.8%, 13.9%, and 11.64% respectively, and were at the 98%/97%, 90%/87%, 94%/95%, 83%/74%, 86%/83%, and 94%/92% quantiles since 2010/2021 [19]. - In debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of convertible bonds with parities below 70 yuan was - 4.01%, at the 1%/5% quantiles since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 42.86%, at the 86%/86% quantiles since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 1.51%, at the 82%/83% quantiles since 2010/2021 [19]. Primary Market Tracking - No convertible bonds were announced for issuance last week (2025/11/24 - 2025/11/28), and Zhuomei Convertible Bond was listed. The underlying stock is Xingyuan Zhuomei, which belongs to the automobile industry, with a market value of 5.317 billion yuan as of November 28. The company is a professional enterprise in designing and manufacturing large - and medium - sized aluminum and magnesium alloy die - casting molds. The scale of the convertible bond issued this time is 450 million yuan, with a credit rating of A +, and it was listed on November 24. After deducting the issuance expenses, the funds are to be fully invested in the project of an annual output of 3 million sets of high - strength large - sized magnesium alloy precision - formed parts for automobiles [26]. - As of the announcements on November 28, there are no convertible bonds announced for issuance or listing in the coming week (2025/12/1 - 2025/12/5). Last week, one company (Lianrui New Materials) was approved for registration, one company (Shangsheng Electronics) passed the listing committee review, one company (Aike Technology) was accepted by the exchange, one company (Songyuan Safety) passed the shareholders' meeting, and one company (Shenling Environment) had a board of directors' plan. As of now, there are 97 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 145.89 billion yuan, including 7 that have been approved for registration with a total scale of 4.72 billion yuan and 6 that have passed the listing committee review with a total scale of 7.46 billion yuan [27].