Alphabet(US:GOOG) Haitong Securities International·2025-11-30 13:03Investment Focus - The market's initial correction is largely complete, and a rebound is expected, particularly in the technology sector [1][8] - U.S. equities rebounded, improving global risk appetite, with Hong Kong and A-shares stabilizing and moving higher, led by the tech sector [1][8] External Liquidity - External liquidity continues to improve, with U.S. September retail sales slowing and PPI below expectations, supporting a December rate cut probability rising to 86% [2][9] - The U.S. Dollar Index fell below 100 to 99.4, while the RMB strengthened to 7.07, with other assets like Bitcoin and gold also experiencing mild rebounds [2][9] Technology Sector - The market focused on developments related to Google, with positive feedback on products like Gemini 3.0 Pro and Nano Banana, and Meta considering significant TPU purchases from Google [3][10] - Google shares rose 7%, while NVIDIA experienced a slight decline of about 1% amid improving liquidity [3][10] - The tech sector in Hong Kong and A-shares saw notable rebounds but have not fully recovered from previous losses, with the ChiNext Index recovering most of its declines [3][10] Real Estate Sector - Vanke faced declines in bond prices due to concerns over large-scale maturities, but some bonds rebounded, indicating no extreme liquidation [4][11] - The sensitivity of the equity market to negative news regarding Vanke is diminishing, with the AH-listed property stocks ending the week higher, suggesting stabilization in the real estate sector [4][11] - The CSRC announced a pilot program for commercial property REITs, aimed at enhancing liquidity in the commercial real estate sector [4][11] Market Activity and Fund Flows - The market experienced a low-volume rebound, with A-share turnover falling to RMB 1.6 trillion and Hong Kong turnover dropping to HKD 150 billion [5][12] - The short-selling ratio in Hong Kong decreased to 12%, below historical averages, while A-share equity ETFs recorded net outflows of RMB 12.4 billion [5][12] - Margin financing turned to a net inflow of RMB 10.6 billion, indicating a re-leveraging phase in the market [5][12] Summary - The market stabilized and rebounded, remaining in a low-volume consolidation phase, with expectations for continued rebound trends [6][13] - The technology sector is expected to continue its rebound, with a focus on the Hang Seng Tech Index and STAR-board names linked to domestic compute infrastructure [6][13] - The real estate sector is stabilizing, with recommendations to watch leading developers with solid fundamentals for rebound opportunities [6][13]