期货策略周报：底部漫长反复-20251201

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent commodity resonance decline has left chemical and black varieties with low valuations, suggesting limited further downside and little value in chasing short positions [2][4][5]. - Despite the continuous decline of coking coal, the overall framework remains within the anti - involution context, so excessive bearishness is unwarranted [2][5]. - Agricultural products are expected to remain in a volatile range, lacking the fundamental basis for a sustained upward trend [2][4][5]. - The temporary increase in palm oil supply does not alter the overall supply - demand logic of the oil and fat sector. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended for this sector [2][5]. - After the current adjustment, it is advisable to consider bargain - hunting for varieties with decent fundamentals, such as the oil and fat and polyester sectors [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Review - The commodity market rebounded this week, driven by technical rebounds of some oversold varieties and the strength of non - ferrous metals and precious metals [4]. - Non - ferrous varieties rebounded after a recent decline. The supply - tight situation maintained their strength. Due to capacity issues in copper mines and electrolytic aluminum, they are expected to remain volatile after the adjustment [4]. - Agricultural products generally followed a volatile pattern. China's purchase of US soybeans could not immediately reverse the global soybean oversupply situation. Chasing the high prices of US soybeans or domestic soybean meal is not recommended. It is better to wait for the adjustment to end and then buy on dips [4]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the expected progress of OPEC and the Russia - Ukraine peace process influenced the upward movement of crude oil prices. However, the demand was weak, and the prices were mainly affected by supply - side factors. Some chemical products had significantly low valuations, making short - chasing less valuable [4]. - In the black sector, coking coal and coke were under pressure due to the National Development and Reform Commission's coal supply guarantee policy, but their downside was also limited as they were still within the anti - involution framework. The overall valuation of rebar was also low [4]. 3.2 Market Data Tables - Plate Capital Flows: The total capital flow was - 8.919 billion yuan, with precious metals seeing an inflow of 3.569 billion yuan (44.2%), non - ferrous metals 2.907 billion yuan (49.2%), and other sectors showing different levels of inflow or outflow [9]. - Black and Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Data: The table presented price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis data for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties, such as iron ore, rebar, gold, and copper [9]. - Energy and Chemical Weekly Data: Similar data was provided for energy and chemical varieties, including fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt [11]. - Agricultural Products Weekly Data: The data covered price, inventory, etc. for agricultural products like soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12].