Holly Futures(SZ:001236) Hong Ye Qi Huo·2025-12-01 09:01Report Title - The report is titled "Steel Weekly Report 20251201" [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to macro - expectations and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December. The fundamentals of steel products show mixed trends, with some products facing challenges in supply, demand, and inventory [5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Product Analysis Supply - The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills in China was 206.08 million tons (-1.88 million tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 319.01 million tons (+3 million tons). Rebar long - process output decreased by 4.43 million tons, and short - process output increased by 2.55 million tons. Hot - rolled coil output increased but remained at a high level [5][35] Demand - Recent high - frequency data shows that the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils has declined. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 227.94 million tons (-2.85 million tons), and for hot - rolled coils, it was 320.22 million tons (-4.2 million tons). The construction steel weekly average trading volume was 10.45 million tons, remaining at a low level, and the hot - rolled coil weekly average trading volume was 3.36 million tons [5][44][49] Inventory - Rebar total inventory was 531.48 million tons (-21.86 million tons), with social inventory at 384.75 million tons (-15.27 million tons) and steel mill inventory at 146.73 million tons (-6.59 million tons). Hot - rolled coil total inventory was 400.9 million tons (-1.21 million tons), social inventory was 322.88 million tons (-1.21 million tons), and steel mill inventory remained unchanged [7] Basis - The basis of the rebar main contract was 140 yuan/ton (-23 yuan/ton), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract was - 12 yuan/ton (-12 yuan/ton), showing a weakening trend [13] Summary - The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease. The molten iron output was 234.68 million tons, a 1.6 million - ton week - on - week decrease. The blast furnace operating rate was 81.09%, a 1.1% week - on - week decrease, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a 0.6% week - on - week decrease. The electric furnace operating rate remained unchanged, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate increased by 1.17% [7] Raw Material Analysis - The prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke, main coking coal in Lvliang, and 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port were 1450 yuan/ton, 1505 yuan/ton, and 794 yuan/ton respectively this week, with week - on - week changes of - 30 yuan/ton, - 140 yuan/ton, and +6 yuan/ton [16][17] Market and Related Data Steel Export - In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a 690,000 - ton month - on - month decrease. From January to October, the cumulative steel export volume was 97.737 million tons, a 6.6% cumulative year - on - year increase. In October, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.6415 million tons [64] Automobile Production and Sales - In October, automobile production was 3.3587 million vehicles, an 82,900 - vehicle month - on - month increase; sales were 3.3221 million tons, a 95,700 - ton month - on - month increase. New energy vehicle production was 1.772 million vehicles, a 155,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; sales were 1.715 million tons, an 111,000 - ton month - on - month increase [68] Real Estate Data - From January to October, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the new housing construction area decreased by 19.8% year - on - year, the housing completion area decreased by 16.9% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales amount decreased by 9.6% year - on - year, and the available funds decreased by 9.7% year - on - year [71][72]