大类资产月度策略：股债岁末盘整，原油寒意未消-20251203

Group 1 - The report indicates a continued trend of "loose monetary policy + credit easing," with a low risk of tightening in the funding environment, which supports macroeconomic and asset performance [1][13][19] - In October, China's new social financing was 816.1 billion yuan, lower than the expected 1,537.7 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, also below the expected 451.2 billion yuan, indicating a slight pullback in credit pulses but an overall continuation of the upward trend for the year [1][13] - The report suggests that the A-share market is expected to stabilize towards the end of the year, with limited short-term upside or downside, and anticipates a potential upward momentum in the first quarter of the following year [2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the bond market remains resilient despite weak fundamentals, with the overall bond market showing stability amid a backdrop of declining interest rates [3][31] - In November, the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 6.9 basis points to 1.73%, indicating a stable bond market environment [31] - The report notes that the commodity price trends are diverging, with oil prices under pressure and gold prices experiencing fluctuations, influenced by global economic conditions and geopolitical factors [4][31] Group 3 - The report emphasizes a focus on large-cap growth stocks due to the recovery in the domestic economy, with China's manufacturing PMI at 49.2, indicating a better outlook compared to the US [19][20] - The report suggests that the overall economic recovery is favorable for growth sectors, with industrial value-added growth of 6.1% year-on-year from January to October [19][20] - The report recommends an asset allocation strategy favoring equities over commodities and bonds, with specific allocations for aggressive and conservative strategies [24][26]