2025年12月大类资产配置月报：回调或是风险资产的买入时机-20251203

• The Macroeconomic Scoring Model is used to assess asset allocation preferences based on macroeconomic factors. It evaluates domestic and global conditions, including monetary policy, inflation, and credit, to generate asset-specific timing views. For December, the model turned cautious on the CSI 800 and 10-year government bonds due to tightening domestic monetary conditions, while maintaining a positive outlook on the S&P 500, crude oil, and copper[18][19][20] - The US Equity Timing Model monitors economic indicators and market sentiment to identify optimal entry points for US equities. It highlights that, before the Federal Reserve's December meeting, uncertainty around rate cuts may suppress risk appetite. However, fiscal expansion post-government reopening could stabilize the economy, presenting potential buying opportunities if equity prices decline[21][22][24] - The Gold Timing Model tracks factors such as fiscal pressure, central bank policies, and global de-dollarization trends. The latest indicator value is -0.54, reflecting marginal weakening due to reduced fiscal expansion. However, the model suggests that gold's medium-term upward trend remains intact, supported by global de-dollarization and potential rate cut expectations[25][26][27] - The Crude Oil Timing Model evaluates demand, inventory levels, macro risks, and investor sentiment. The current oil sentiment index is -0.1, indicating a cautious outlook. While global demand shows marginal improvement, other factors, including inventory and macro risks, have weakened, suggesting a deteriorating fundamental outlook for crude oil[27][29][31] - The Asset Allocation Strategy uses quantitative signals and macro factor adjustments to allocate risk budgets across asset classes. For November, the strategy achieved a return of -0.2%, with a 12.2% return over the past year and a maximum drawdown of 2.9%. The December allocation reduced exposure to the CSI 800 and 10-year government bonds while increasing allocations to the S&P 500, gold, and copper[3][32][34] Model Backtesting Results - Macroeconomic Scoring Model: December views include cautious stances on the CSI 800 and 10-year government bonds, while maintaining positive views on the S&P 500, crude oil, and copper[18][19][20] - US Equity Timing Model: Indicates medium-term opportunities for US equities post-Federal Reserve meeting, contingent on fiscal expansion and economic stabilization[21][22][24] - Gold Timing Model: Latest indicator value is -0.54, with medium-term support from global de-dollarization and potential rate cut expectations[25][26][27] - Crude Oil Timing Model: Current sentiment index is -0.1, reflecting a cautious outlook due to weakening fundamentals[27][29][31] - Asset Allocation Strategy: November return of -0.2%, 12-month return of 12.2%, and maximum drawdown of 2.9%. December allocation adjustments include increased exposure to the S&P 500, gold, and copper, with reduced exposure to the CSI 800 and 10-year government bonds[3][32][34]