菜百股份（605599）：公司更新报告：黄金税收新政利好菜百投资金业务

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [5] Core Views - The new tax policy is expected to benefit compliant leading brands in the gold market, with the company poised to increase its market share under this policy [2][11] - The company is projected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by rising gold prices and increased investment demand [16][20] Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 16,552 million yuan in 2023 to 31,804 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.9% [4][21] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 707 million yuan in 2023 to 1,023 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 8.5% [4][21] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.91 yuan in 2023 to 1.32 yuan in 2027 [4][21] Revenue Forecast - The company’s revenue from precious metal investment products is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 18,068.91 million yuan in 2025, representing a 40% increase [16][17] - Revenue from gold jewelry is anticipated to grow at a slower pace, with estimates of 6,020.28 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10% increase [16][17] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, exceeding 75% [11][20] Market Position and Strategy - The company operates as a member of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, allowing it to directly procure gold and sell it through a fully owned retail model, which is less affected by the new tax policy [11][42] - The company is expanding its retail presence, with a total of 103 stores by mid-2025, covering key cities including Beijing, Tianjin, and others [11][20] - The new tax policy is expected to enhance the company's competitive pricing advantage in the investment gold market, potentially attracting customers from other brands [11][42] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 19.26 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18x for 2025, which is slightly above the industry average [22]