ZHEJIANG DINGLI(SH:603338) GF SECURITIES·2025-12-04 04:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhejiang Dingli, with a current price of 59.34 RMB and a fair value of 72.15 RMB [7]. Core Views - Zhejiang Dingli is considered one of the most elastic stocks in the recovery of industrial products in Europe and the United States. The company has a high overseas revenue proportion, with 71% of its revenue expected to come from overseas in 2024. The report anticipates a significant rebound in North American high machinery sales in 2026, similar to the high growth seen in excavators in 2025. The company has substantial room for market share growth, and its valuation remains low compared to peers, with a PE-TTM percentile of only 37% since 2021 [7][9][10]. Financial Forecast - The projected financials for Zhejiang Dingli are as follows: - Revenue is expected to grow from 6,312 million RMB in 2023 to 10,817 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 15.9%, 23.6%, 9.7%, 10.6%, and 14.2% respectively [2]. - EBITDA is forecasted to increase from 2,036 million RMB in 2023 to 3,336 million RMB in 2027 [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 1,867 million RMB in 2023 to 2,686 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 48.5%, -12.8%, 17.0%, 19.8%, and 17.7% [2]. - EPS is projected to grow from 3.69 RMB in 2023 to 5.31 RMB in 2027 [2]. - The report suggests a valuation of 16x PE for 2026, leading to a fair value of 72.15 RMB per share [7][45]. Long-term Perspective - The report indicates that the demand for high machinery in overseas markets has shown signs of recovery after two years of decline. Key indicators, such as North American excavator sales, have improved significantly, with a recovery from a year-on-year decline of 19% in April 2025 to a growth of 42% by September 2025. This suggests a synchronized recovery in the high machinery cycle [10][11]. Short-term Indicators - The report highlights a strong correlation between Zhejiang Dingli's revenue and the export data of electric forklifts and high machinery from Zhejiang Province to North America. The increase in export figures in 2025 compared to 2024 reflects a recovery in industry beta, indicating positive short-term trends for the company [35][36]. Market Performance - Despite the challenging market conditions, Zhejiang Dingli has outperformed its U.S. competitors, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 3% in Q3 2025, while competitors like Terex and Haulotte experienced declines of 30% and 12% respectively [22]. Valuation Comparison - The report notes that while U.S. peers have seen significant stock price recoveries in 2025, Zhejiang Dingli's valuation has remained relatively unchanged, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [43][44].