淮河能源（600575）：保底股息率5.2%的煤电一体化标的

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a stable high dividend yield, with a commitment to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 75% and a minimum DPS of 0.19 RMB, corresponding to a guaranteed dividend yield of 5.2% for 2025-2027 [4][5] - The integration of coal and power operations allows the company to mitigate the impact of rising coal prices, as its fuel cost pressure is significantly lower compared to companies with a lower proportion of long-term coal contracts [3][5] - The injection of high-quality assets from the group is anticipated to enhance the company's asset scale and profitability, with the potential to increase operational coal power capacity by 231 MW and coal production capacity by 67% [2][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Dividend Policy - The company has committed to a minimum DPS of 0.19 RMB for 2025-2027, which translates to a guaranteed dividend yield of 5.2% based on the closing price as of December 3, 2025 [4][5] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company for 2025-2027 is 875 million, 892 million, and 908 million RMB respectively, with BPS expected to be 3.17, 3.40, and 3.64 RMB [5][11] - The target price for the company is set at 5.28 RMB, reflecting a target PB of 1.55x for 2026 [5][11] Market Context - The report highlights the increasing preference for stable high-dividend stocks amid uncertainties in the profitability expectations for thermal power companies in 2026 due to fluctuations in coal prices and ongoing market reforms [1][5]