格林大华期货早盘提示-20251205

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Morgan Stanley upgrades the rating of Chinese stocks to "overweight" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main stock indices in the two markets fluctuated widely on Thursday, showing a divergent trend. The robot and semiconductor sectors led the gains, while the CSI 1000 index continued to drag down the market. The trading volume in the two markets shrank. The A - share market is expected to see its valuation further increase in 2026 due to factors such as incremental macro - policies, declining risk - free interest rates, and the continuous flow of household savings into the stock market. The market is expected to be weak in December, and long positions in stock index futures should be gradually exited [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The main stock indices in the two markets fluctuated widely on Thursday, with a divergent trend. The robot and semiconductor sectors led the gains, and the CSI 1000 index continued to drag down the market. The trading volume in the two markets was 1.54 trillion yuan, showing a contraction. The CSI 300 index closed at 4546 points, up 15 points or 0.34%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2974 points, up 11 points or 0.38%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7012 points, up 16 points or 0.24%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7248 points, up 1 point or 0.01%. Among industry and theme ETFs, semiconductor equipment ETF, robot 50ETF, and others led the gains, while wine ETF, tourism ETF, and others led the losses. Among the sector indices in the two markets, aerospace equipment, home appliance parts, and others led the gains, while coke processing, fishery, and others led the losses. The settlement funds of stock index futures for the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 indices had net outflows of 44 billion, 24 billion, 10 billion, and 7 billion yuan respectively [1] Important Information - The central bank governor published an article in People's Daily, aiming to enrich the policy toolbox for macro - prudential management [1] - Due to the persistent price difference between COMEX and LME, funds hoarding copper have been flowing into the US. Currently, COMEX copper inventories have exceeded 400,000 tons, an increase of over 300% compared to the end of last year, accounting for 62% of the total copper inventories of the three major international exchanges [1] - The US Secretary of Commerce has been meeting with robot industry CEOs and plans to establish a robot working group. The US is committed to the development of the robot and advanced manufacturing industries [1] - Amazon's self - developed AI chip Trainium2 has achieved annualized revenues in the billions of dollars, and over 1 million chips have been put into production. Amazon has also released Trainium3 with 4 - fold performance improvement [1] - Micron will shut down its Crucial brand business, leaving a large gap in the consumer - grade storage market [2] - The yield of Japan's 30 - year treasury bonds has reached a record high, and the probability of a December interest rate hike has risen above 80% [2] - Goldman Sachs' macro traders expect intense long - short battles in the US stock market next year, with multiple driving and restrictive factors [2] - A bill restricting Nvidia's sales of AI chips overseas has not been included in the US annual defense bill [2] - Morgan Stanley is considering selling some of its data - center - related exposures, and Deutsche Bank is evaluating ways to manage its data - center loan risks [2] - ADP employment data shows that private enterprises cut 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023, with small businesses being the hardest - hit [2] - US companies' service charge price increases in November may hinder further interest rate cuts and suppress the development of the financial service industry [2] Market Logic - The main stock indices in the two markets fluctuated widely on Thursday, with a divergent trend. The robot and semiconductor sectors led the gains, while the CSI 1000 index continued to drag down the market. The A - share market's earnings growth rate is expected to rise from 6% this year to 8% in 2026. Multiple factors will drive the A - share market's valuation up. Private - fund new - product filing scale in October was normal, but the existing scale increased by 1.14 trillion yuan, a growth of over 17%. Overseas funds flowing into the Chinese stock market in the first 10 months of this year reached 50.6 billion US dollars, far exceeding the 11.4 billion US dollars in 2024 [1][2] Future Market Outlook - The main stock indices in the two markets fluctuated widely on Thursday, with a divergent trend, and the CSI 1000 index continued to drag down the market. Morgan Stanley believes that the Chinese stock market in 2026 has a much higher risk of a significant rise than a significant fall, and the MSCI China index is expected to have a 19% upside potential. There are multiple positive factors in the Chinese market. The current market has weakened, and it is expected to run weakly in December [3] Trading Strategy - Stock index futures directional trading: The market has weakened, and it is expected to run weakly in December. Long positions in stock index futures should be gradually exited [3] - Stock index option trading: As the market has weakened, do not participate in stock index call options for the time being [3]