黄金坐标系的切换与财政风险溢价的扩散路径：大类资产定价的K型背离

Group 1 - The report discusses a significant shift in the pricing paradigm of major assets, characterized by a "K-shaped divergence" where traditional macroeconomic anchors have failed, leading to a decoupling of asset prices from economic fundamentals [4][10][37] - The report quantifies the extent of K-shaped divergence, revealing that the S&P 500 has deviated by approximately 141% from employment data, while gold has shown an extreme deviation of over 400%, indicating a fundamental shift from a "monetary-dominated" phase to a "fiscal-dominated" phase [4][20][37] - The analysis highlights the relationship between interest rates, copper, and gold, noting that since 2022, the nominal interest rates have diverged significantly from implied rates derived from copper and gold, with a maximum gap of 660 basis points [4][38][41] Group 2 - The report introduces a unique "gold coordinate system" perspective, suggesting that in this framework, the S&P 500 aligns more closely with employment data, indicating that the stock market has transformed into a "gold-like" asset that hedges against currency depreciation [4][42][46] - The analysis of various asset models shows that the extreme divergence of the S&P 500 and gold reflects a deep-seated fiscal risk premium embedded in asset prices, with a notable 600 basis point gap between actual interest rates and implied equilibrium rates [4][59][54] - The report outlines potential macro paths for the future evolution of K-shaped divergence, including scenarios of moderate recovery, inflationary pressures leading to political shocks, and recessionary pathways, emphasizing the need for vigilance regarding mid-term recession risks [4][61][69]