长白山（603099）：冰雪胜地，交通扩容，十年之约，再创辉煌

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Changbai Mountain (603099) for the first time [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading comprehensive tourism service provider in China, focusing on ice and snow tourism, leveraging its unique natural resources and improving transportation infrastructure to enhance visitor capacity and revenue [6][12][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Changbai Mountain operates in tourism transportation and hotel management, established in 2010 and listed in 2014, with a focus on integrating tourism resources and developing ice and snow tourism [12][18]. - In 2024, the main scenic area received 3.409 million visitors, a year-on-year increase of 24.1%, with revenue reaching 743.2 million yuan, up 19.8% year-on-year [12][18]. 2. High Demand in Tourism - The leisure tourism market is experiencing high demand, with domestic travel increasing significantly. In 2024, domestic travel volume reached 5.615 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year [46]. - Policies are supporting the growth of the ice and snow tourism sector, with projections for 5.2 billion visitors and over 630 billion yuan in revenue during the 2024-2025 winter season [54][62]. 3. Transportation Improvements - Transportation enhancements, including the opening of the Shenbai high-speed railway and the new terminal at Baishan Changbai Mountain Airport, are expected to boost visitor numbers significantly [6][54]. - The company is developing new projects, such as the second phase of the volcanic hot spring resort, which is projected to generate annual revenue of 120 million yuan upon completion [6][54]. 4. Financial Analysis - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 1.576 billion, 1.919 billion, and 2.259 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 84, 69, and 59 [1][6]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 806.46 million yuan in 2025 to 1.0046 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [1][6]. 5. Investment Recommendations - Given the company's unique positioning in the ice and snow tourism market, rapid visitor growth, and significant capacity expansion potential, the report suggests a valuation premium and recommends an "Accumulate" rating [1][6].