Guotai Haitong Securities(SH:601211) Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-12-07 07:19Report Overview - The report is a weekly log report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated December 7, 2025, focusing on the log market, including supply, demand, inventory, price trends, and other influencing factors [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The log market's fundamentals maintain a weak supply - demand pattern, with the futures market showing weak and volatile trends, and spot prices remaining stable [20] Summary by Directory 1. Supply - As of November 30, 41 ships departed from New Zealand in November, with 34 going to mainland China and 7 to Taiwan, China, and South Korea for unloading. It is expected that 12 ships will arrive in November and 29 in December, with an estimated arrival volume of 1.41 million cubic meters in November [5][8] 2. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of November 28, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 10,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 900 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.3688 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 6,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 452,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 50,800 cubic meters), Xinminzhou had about 274,100 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 35,400 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 160,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 13,600 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.2555 million cubic meters, an increase of 78,600 cubic meters compared to the previous week [6][14] 3. Market Trends - As of December 5, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 765.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.3% increase from the previous week. The futures market continued its weak and volatile trend, and the monthly spread changed little this week. The 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 13 yuan per cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 24.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 11.5 yuan per cubic meter [20] 4. Price and Spread - Spot Price: For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 750 yuan per cubic meter, and the Jiangsu market quoted 740 yuan per cubic meter, both remaining unchanged from the previous week. The prices of other specifications and tree species also remained stable [4][24] - Regional Spread: The report analyzed the price spreads of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu regions, including 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine, etc. [26][29] - Tree Species and Specification Spread: It analyzed the price spreads between different specifications of radiata pine, such as the spread between 3.9 - meter 30 + and 40 + radiata pine, and the spread between 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine and 5.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine [41][43] 5. Other - As of the week of December 7, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,814.00 points, a 254 - point (9.9%) increase from the previous week. The Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 841 points, a 1.7% increase from the previous week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,397.63 points, a 0.4% decrease from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index weakened, with the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate at 7.071, a 0.11% week - on - week decrease, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate dropping 0.8% to 1.73 [56]