煤焦周度观点-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand difference expectation for coal and coke is weak, and the valuation has been revised downward [3]. - The auction non - success rate of coking coal in online auctions remains high. Coke enterprises still expect a continuous decline in raw material spot prices, with low procurement sentiment. Downstream blast furnace production has decreased again on a week - on - week basis [4]. - The recovery of origin supply is still slow, but Mongolia maintains a high traffic volume. The market still has strong expectations for the recovery of future source production. The overseas interest - rate cut expectation has gradually become a consensus, but the domestic risk preference reflects the expectation of insufficient policy intervention. The current coal is in the supply - guarantee cycle, and the market's expectation for the recovery of future coal supply is still strong. Coupled with the blast furnace start - up data that has reached a phased peak, the demand space for coal and coke is also suppressed to some extent, leading to a significant decline in the previously high valuation of coal and coke recently [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Category | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 853.4 (-2.68); FW clean coal 438.18 (-0.57) | Independent coking plants' daily average 64.53 (+0.77); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 46.62 (+0.30) | | Demand | Hot metal production 232.3 (-2.38) | Hot metal production 232.3 (-2.38) | | Inventory | MS total inventory +40.7; Mine clean coal +23.1; Independent coking -1.1; Mine raw coal +19.7; Steel mill coking -3.0; Port +2.0; FW port +6.6 | MS total inventory -1.7; Independent coking -6.1; Steel mill -0.3; Port +4.7 | | Profit | Commodity coal 543 (-16) | Average profit of coking enterprises 30 (-16) | | Warehouse receipt | Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1195 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1621 | [7] 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply - There are data on weekly and monthly production of coking coal, including 523 sample mine production, FW raw coal and clean coal production, and coking coal production from different sources. Mongolia's coal customs clearance data for different ports are also provided [9][11][13]. 3.2.2 Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines increased by 26.52 tons week - on - week to 194.67 tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 20.06 tons week - on - week to 127.61 tons. - Port inventory: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 296.5 tons, an increase of 2 tons week - on - week. - Coking plant inventory: There are data on inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises, including overall and regional data. - Steel mill inventory: There are data on inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises, including overall and regional data [24][26][29][35]. 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Capacity utilization: There are data on the capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises, including overall and regional data, and data for different production capacities [38][40]. - Output: There are data on the daily output of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises, including overall and historical data [42][44]. 3.3.2 Inventory - Coking plant inventory: There are data on the inventory of independent coking enterprises, including overall and historical data. - Steel mill inventory: There are data on the inventory, average available days, and regional inventory of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants. - Total inventory: There are data on the total inventory of coke, including overall and historical data [46][47][52]. 3.3.3 Demand - There is data on the daily output of hot metal of 247 steel enterprises, which reflects the demand for coke [54]. 3.3.4 Profit - There are data on the profit of coking enterprises, including ton - coke average profit and ton - coke futures profit [57][58]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices 3.4.1 Futures - Coking coal futures: There are data on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of coking coal 2605 and 2601 futures contracts from November 28 to December 5, 2025, as well as the price change data [63]. - Coke futures: There are data on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of coke 2601 and 2605 futures contracts from November 28 to December 5, 2025, as well as the price change data [65]. 3.4.2 Spot - There are data on the spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke, including car - loading prices of coking coal and summary prices of coke [71]. 3.4.3 Basis - The prices of double - coke futures are weak, and the basis remains high [74].