能源化工纸浆周度报告-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to oscillate and consolidate after the realization of positive factors. The pulp futures market strengthened this week, mainly driven by supply - side news of international pulp mills exiting the market and market concerns about the reduction of warehouse receipts. However, the market fundamentals have not changed fundamentally, with high - level port inventories and weak downstream demand, which restricts the price increase space and sustainability [96]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - As of December 4, 2025, the pulp inventory at Changshu Port was 566,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the previous period, a 1.0% month - on - month decrease; the inventory at Qingdao Port was 1.395 million tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons from last week, a 2.4% month - on - month decrease; the inventory at Gaolan Port was 45,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from last week, a 25.0% month - on - month decrease. The total inventory of mainstream port samples in China was 2.101 million tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease [5][6]. - Domtar will permanently close its Crofton factory in Canada, reducing its annual pulp production by about 380,000 tons of NBSK softwood pulp [6]. - Finns Group's Joutseno pulp mill will resume operation on December 8, 2025, and its Rauma pulp mill will start a one - month production reduction shutdown on December 15, 2025, and plans to gradually resume production by department from January 7, 2026 [7]. - Shandong Bohui Paper plans to invest about 1.701 billion yuan in a chemical wood pulp expansion project. After the project is completed, the company's chemical wood pulp production capacity will increase from the current 95,000 tons/year to 320,000 tons/year [8]. Market Data Market Trends - On December 5, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 150 yuan/ton, a 25.74% month - on - month decrease from November 28, 2025, and a 67.67% year - on - year decrease; the basis of Russian Needle was - 50 yuan/ton, a 78.57% month - on - month decrease from November 28, 2025, and a 457.14% year - on - year decrease; the price difference between Silver Star and Russian Needle was 200 yuan/ton, a 13.04% month - on - month decrease from November 28, 2025, and a 55.56% year - on - year decrease [16]. Month - to - Month Spread - On December 5, 2025, the 01 - 03 month - to - month spread was - 16 yuan/ton, a 11.11% month - on - month increase from November 28, 2025; the 03 - 05 month - to - month spread was - 24 yuan/ton, a 25.00% month - on - month increase from November 28, 2025 [21]. Fundamental Data Price - The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp: On December 5, 2025, the price difference between Silver Star and Goldfish was 1,000 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change from November 28, 2025, and a 44.44% year - on - year decrease; the price difference between Russian Needle and Goldfish was 800 yuan/ton, a 3.90% month - on - month increase from November 28, 2025, and a 40.74% year - on - year decrease [27]. - Pulp import profit: On December 5, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was 83 yuan/ton, a 170.04% month - on - month increase from November 28, 2025, and a 140.60% year - on - year increase; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was 122.95 yuan/ton, a 516.27% month - on - month increase from November 28, 2025, and a 226.39% year - on - year increase [30]. - Softwood pulp price: On December 5, 2025, the prices of Silver Star, Kalip, Beimu, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle in the Shandong market were 5,600 yuan/ton, 5,750 yuan/ton, 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,750 yuan/ton, and 5,400 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month increases of 3.70%, 1.77%, 0.86%, 1.77%, and 4.45% respectively, and year - on - year decreases of 10.40%, 9.45%, 8.59%, 9.45%, and 6.90% respectively [33][34]. - Hardwood pulp price: On December 5, 2025, the prices of Goldfish, Star, Bird, and Broadleaf in the Shandong market were 4,600 yuan/ton, 4,600 yuan/ton, 4,550 yuan/ton, and 4,500 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month increases of 4.55%, 3.37%, 3.88%, and 5.88% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 3.37%, 3.37%, 3.41%, and 3.45% respectively [37]. - Natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp price: On December 5, 2025, the prices of Venus and Kunhe in the Shandong market were 5,150 yuan/ton and 3,800 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month increases of 0.98% and 2.70% respectively, and year - on - year changes of - 4.63% and 7.04% respectively [40]. Supply - Wood chip price: In the East China region, some paper mills' wood chip purchase prices decreased this week. On December 5, 2025, the purchase prices of eucalyptus wood chips by Liansheng Pulp and Paper and poplar wood chips by Wuzhou Special Paper, Shandong Chenming, Yinhe Ruixue, Sun Paper, and Champion Paper, as well as pine wood chips by Wuzhou Special Paper and Sun Paper, showed different changes [42][44]. - Domestic pulp: The price of hardwood pulp increased this period, and the supply of chemimechanical pulp increased. On December 5, 2025, the daily average price of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 3,808.33 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the daily ex - factory price of Asia - Pacific Senbo's hardwood pulp (Senbo) was 4,600 yuan/ton, a 3.37% month - on - month increase [46][48]. - European port inventory and global pulp shipping volume: In October 2025, the European pulp port inventory was 1.404 million tons, a 10.23% month - on - month decrease and a 6.46% year - on - year decrease; the global pulp shipping volume was 4.52 million tons, a 10.90% month - on - month decrease and a 3.50% year - on - year decrease [51]. - W20 shipping volume and inventory: In August 2025, the W20 softwood pulp shipping volume was at a low level with high inventory, while the hardwood pulp shipping volume remained at a high level but with a low inventory days [53]. - Overseas softwood pulp export volume: In August 2025, the total softwood pulp export volume of Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China decreased month - on - month and was at a low level year - on - year; in September 2025, Finland's export volume to China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; in October 2025, Chile's softwood pulp export volume to China continued to increase month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [59]. - Overseas hardwood pulp export volume: In October 2025, the total hardwood pulp export volume of Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, and Chile to China decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year; in November 2025, Brazil's hardwood pulp export volume to China decreased significantly month - on - month, and Uruguay's export volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [60]. - Pulp import volume: In October 2025, China's pulp imports showed differentiation. The import volume of softwood pulp increased by 0.06% month - on - month, the import volume of hardwood pulp decreased by 2.77% month - on - month, and the import volumes of natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly month - on - month [64]. Demand - Offset paper: The price of offset paper remained stable this period. The industry's production capacity is large, and the supply of goods is abundant. The demand side is weak, with most users purchasing on a rigid - demand basis. The production pressure of the industry has increased, and the mills' willingness to raise prices has strengthened, but the downstream consumption restricts the price increase [68]. - Coated paper: The price of coated paper remained stable this period. The mills maintained stable production, and the market supply changed little. The consumption side was weak, with most downstream sectors purchasing on - demand. The industry's profitability continued to narrow, and the mills' willingness to support prices increased [72]. - White cardboard: The price of white cardboard increased slightly this period. The paper mills announced a price increase of 100 - 200 yuan/ton this month, but the terminal orders did not improve significantly, and there was resistance to price increases. The raw material procurement was on - demand, and the inventory - building enthusiasm was low [76]. - Tissue paper: The market price of tissue paper increased slightly. The overall market trading activity did not change much, and the terminal demand was weak. The raw material pulp price increased, providing strong cost support [80]. - Terminal demand: In October 2025, the retail sales of cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly year - on - year, while the dairy product output decreased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [84]. Inventory - Futures inventory: On December 5, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in warehouses was 202,900 tons, a 0.42% month - on - month decrease from November 28, 2025, and a 39.53% year - on - year decrease; the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp in mills was 6,000 tons, with no month - on - month change from November 28, 2025, and a 75.81% year - on - year decrease [87]. - Spot inventory: As of December 5, 2025, the inventory at Qingdao Port was 1.395 million tons, a 2.38% month - on - month decrease and a 22.37% year - on - year increase; the inventory at Changshu Port was 566,000 tons, a 1.05% month - on - month decrease and a 19.41% year - on - year increase; the inventory at Gaolan Port, Tianjin Port, and Rizhao Port combined was 140,000 tons, an 18.13% month - on - month decrease and a 38.33% year - on - year decrease; the total inventory of the five ports was 2.101 million tons, a 3.27% month - on - month decrease and a 14.12% year - on - year increase [93]. This Week's View Summary - Supply: The port inventory remains at a high level, and the supply pressure persists. As of December 4, 2025, the total inventory of mainstream port samples in China was 2.101 million tons, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease, and the inventory has been decreasing for two consecutive weeks [96]. - Demand: The demand in the downstream base paper market is weak. Paper mills are in a state of small profits and are reluctant to accept high - priced pulp, only purchasing to meet production needs [96]. - View: It is expected that the pulp market will oscillate and consolidate in the short term after the realization of positive factors. The strengthening of the pulp futures market this week was mainly driven by supply - side news of international pulp mills exiting the market and market concerns about the reduction of warehouse receipts. However, the market fundamentals have not changed fundamentally, with high - level port inventories and weak downstream demand, which restricts the price increase space and sustainability [96]. - Valuation: In terms of basis, on Friday, the basis of softwood pulp Silver Star in the Shandong region was 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton [96]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Short at high prices or wait and see; 2) Inter - period: Continue the 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy; 3) Inter - variety: Observe [96].