锡产业周报：强预期弱现实，震荡为主-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation pattern. Supported by the rigid gap in the ore end and positive macro factors, the downside space for tin prices is limited. However, due to negative demand feedback and signs of inventory accumulation in China, upward breakthroughs are also difficult [2]. - In the long - term, the tin market faces a structural contradiction between the supply rigidity caused by the decline in global tin ore grade and rising mining costs, and the demand elasticity due to the increasing tin consumption intensity from AI computing servers and photovoltaic solder strips [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro Level: The market has priced in an 84.9% probability of a Fed rate cut in December, putting pressure on the US dollar index and providing valuation support for the non - ferrous sector [2]. - Supply Side: The narrative of ore shortage remains strong. Although Myanmar's Wa State has approved mining licenses, actual exports are recovering slowly due to the rainy season and logistics issues. Domestic smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are restricted by raw material bottlenecks, with TC at a low level of 12,000 yuan/ton. Additionally, a subsidiary of Malaysia's MSC has suspended production for three weeks [2]. - Demand Side: Traditional consumer electronics and home appliances are in the off - season, with a significant reduction in orders. Although the photovoltaic and AI computing concepts offer long - term incremental demand, their current share in consumption is small and cannot offset the decline in traditional sectors. Downstream enterprises show a "fear of high prices" and only make rigid - demand purchases with extremely low inventories [2]. - Inventory Side: Global visible inventories are diverging. LME inventories have continuously decreased to a low of 3085 tons, with a risk of a short squeeze. In contrast, domestic SHFE and social inventories have slightly increased to 8012 tons, with a bearish inventory accumulation trend [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Futures Unilateral: Adopt a range - trading strategy (buy low and sell high). Given the ore shortage, there is strong support below 290,000 yuan/ton, but due to negative demand feedback and domestic inventory accumulation, there is significant pressure above 320,000 yuan/ton [12]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Implement a cross - market reverse arbitrage (long LME and short SHFE). LME inventories (~3000 tons) are much lower than SHFE inventories (~6800 tons), and the overseas supply in the LME market is more directly affected by disruptions, so the Shanghai - London ratio has downward potential [12]. - Option Strategy: Sell a wide - strangle option. It is expected that the price will not break through the 290,000 - 320,000 yuan oscillation range in the short term, and volatility is expected to decline, allowing for the earning of time value [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai tin futures contract with a 75% hedging ratio at around 288,000 yuan, and sell call options with a 25% hedging ratio when volatility is appropriate [13]. - Raw Material Management: For enterprises with low raw - material inventories worried about price increases, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai tin futures contract with a 50% hedging ratio at around 277,000 yuan, and sell put options with a 25% hedging ratio when volatility is appropriate [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Drivers: Strengthened Fed rate - cut expectations, concerns about US debt, low ore processing fees, overseas supply disruptions, and continuous inventory reduction in the LME [14][15]. - Negative Information: Eased geopolitical tensions, signs of inventory accumulation in China, a freezing point in spot transactions, and weak demand despite import losses [15]. - Spot Transaction Information: The price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots increased by 4.93% week - on - week, and the prices of 40% and 60% tin concentrates also rose [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic: China's November CPI/PPI data on December 9, and SMM's weekly social inventory changes on December 12 [16]. - International: US November CPI data on December 10, and the Fed FOMC interest rate decision on December 11 [16]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - Price and Inventory Data: This week, tin prices showed a strong performance. The price of Shanghai tin futures, LME tin futures, and the prices of various tin products all changed to different degrees. Inventory data also showed corresponding fluctuations [18][19]. - Domestic Market: Tin prices were strong this week, and profitable positions were mainly long in net positions. The domestic term structure was complex, and the market was uncertain about supply recovery. The LME term structure maintained a B structure, and the internal - external price difference was relatively stable [20][22][26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industrial Chain: Processing fees have long hovered at historical lows, putting pressure on smelter profits and suppressing production willingness [30]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - The supply side is affected by factors such as ore shortages, slow recovery of overseas exports, and raw - material bottlenecks for domestic smelters [2]. 3.5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - Traditional demand is in the off - season, while emerging demand from photovoltaic and AI has not yet fully offset the decline in traditional sectors [2].