Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-12-07 12:28Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting apple prices are the uncertainty of the final price of the 01 contract and the ambiguity of the Spring Festival consumption season. The 01 contract will follow the delivery logic due to reduced supply and limited deliverable fruits, while future price factors will shift from supply to consumption, with potential "off - peak during peak season" scenarios [1]. - The short - term trading logic is that it's the off - season for late Fuji apples, with limited orders from merchants and market impact from citrus fruits, but the price of high - quality apples remains firm. In the long - term, the scarcity of high - quality apples provides opportunities for price rebounds after declines [2][3]. - The upward momentum of apple prices may strengthen. The basis strategy is difficult to formulate, and the monthly spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing. For industrial clients, different hedging strategies are recommended based on inventory and procurement management needs [6][7][8] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - Core Contradictions - The 01 contract price is expected to keep rising due to reduced apple production, poor quality, and limited deliverable fruits. Future price determinants will shift to consumption, and there are concerns about "off - peak during peak season" and "bad money driving out good" [1]. - Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The upward momentum of apple prices may strengthen. The net long position decreased to 3029 lots. The basis strategy is hard to formulate, and the monthly spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing [6][7][8]. - Industry Client Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range for apples is 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 18.5% (3 - year). Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory and procurement management [9]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - This Week's Important Information - As of December 3rd, national apple cold - storage inventories decreased. Cold - storage shipments slowed down, and trading in production areas was sluggish. The number of vehicles in Guangdong's three major wholesale markets increased, but the sales slowed down [12]. - Next Week's Important Information - Monitor the weekly Thursday inventory data from Zhuochuang and Ganglian [15]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation - Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - Last week, apple futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend. Total positions decreased significantly, and profitable seats continued to reduce positions. Technically, the main contract did not break through the previous high and maintained an upward structure [15]. - Basis and Monthly Spread Structure - The apple basis structure is complex due to inconsistent apple quality and changing futures delivery rules. The monthly spread structure shows significant fluctuations in the near - month approaching the delivery month, and the possibility of a stronger long - term market is increasing [17]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain's Upstream and Downstream - Apple profits mainly include planting and storage profits. Currently, the market focuses on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. With more low - quality apples this year, storage faces challenges, and the storage profit for the 25/26 season is undetermined [19]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Affected by weather, this year's apple production and quality declined. The estimated total production in 2025 is about 34 million tons, an 8% decrease from last year. Cold - storage inventories decreased by 10% compared to the same period last year, and the effective inventory may be lower [21].