国泰君安期货·能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to experience a weak consolidation. Overseas peak production periods will increase supply, exerting more pressure on the market than the sentiment of domestic production areas entering the off - season. Thai raw material prices may decline rapidly. With seasonal inventory accumulation pressure and the off - season of terminal demand, there is no obvious positive driver in the short - term, and rubber prices may remain slightly weak [102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - Thailand lifted the emergency state in Songkhla Province as flood conditions improved, but relief and restoration work will continue [5]. - ANRPC predicted that in October 2025, global natural rubber production would increase by 2.7% to 1.496 million tons, while consumption would decrease by 4.2% to 1.26 million tons. For the whole year of 2025, production is expected to increase by 1.3% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption by 0.8% to 15.565 million tons [6]. - In November 2025, China's national passenger car market retail volume decreased by 7% year - on - year. From January to October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, but exports to China increased by 3% [7]. 3.2 Price 3.2.1 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and international rubber prices declined, with Japanese rubber dropping the most, followed by NR and RU. On December 5, 2025, compared with November 28, RU2605 decreased by 2.46%, NR2605 by 2.47%, Singapore TSR20:2605 by 1.04%, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 by 5.10% [10][12]. 3.2.2 Basis and Calendar Spread - On December 5, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU05 was - 365 yuan/ton, with a 17.98% week - on - week increase and a 66.51% year - on - year increase. The 05 - 09 calendar spread was - 20 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change and an 89.74% year - on - year increase [13]. 3.2.3 Other Spreads - Spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 decreased, while the RU - JPX RSS3 spread increased. Non - standard basis: Imported rubber market offers declined, and domestic natural rubber spot prices also decreased. The whole - milk to Thai mixed rubber spread was stable, while the 3L to Thai mixed rubber spread widened [18][21][24]. 3.2.4 Substitute Prices - This week, the domestic butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization rate increased slightly, but the cost side lacked support. Although the mainstream supply price and market offers increased initially, downstream resistance to high prices led to a decline in trading volume and a subsequent drop in offers [31]. 3.2.5 Capital Flow - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased, and the settled capital decreased. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased, while the settled capital increased [34]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather: Thailand's southern region entered the rainy season with increased rainfall, and the northeast had higher - than - normal rainfall and lower - than - normal temperatures. The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan in China have basically ended [39][41]. - Raw Material Prices: Overseas floods receded, and rubber tapping and production resumed in Thailand, leading to a decline in raw material prices. In China, raw materials remained firm during the suspension and production - reduction period [43]. - Raw Material Spreads: The water - cup spread in Thailand widened, while the spreads of Hainan and Yunnan glue entering concentrated latex plants versus whole - milk plants remained stable [47]. - Upstream Processing Profits: As raw material prices decreased, processing profits generally recovered [50]. - Delivery Profits: Hainan's delivery profits continued to recover, while Yunnan's decreased [55]. - Exports: In October, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly driven by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased. Indonesia's exports decreased, mainly due to a significant drop in standard rubber exports. Vietnam's exports increased, with latex having a relatively large month - on - month increase. Cote d'Ivoire's exports decreased month - on - month, but exports to China increased both year - on - year and month - on - month [62][65][68][74][76]. - Imports: In October, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 510,800 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89%. Thai standard rubber imports decreased, while Indonesian standard and mixed rubber imports were at a high level year - on - year, and Cote d'Ivoire's standard rubber imports increased significantly [80]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire Capacity Utilization and Inventory: This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises recovered, but overall sales pressure remained high, limiting the increase. Tire inventory days continued to decline [83]. - Tire Exports and Heavy - Truck Sales: In October, semi - steel tire exports continued to decline significantly month - on - month, while full - steel tire exports decreased slightly. Heavy - truck and passenger car sales increased month - on - month, but the growth rate slowed down [86]. - Road Transport Turnover: In October, road freight turnover decreased month - on - month, while passenger turnover improved [89]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Social Inventory: China's natural rubber inventory showed a seasonal accumulation trend, with both dark and light rubber inventories increasing. The inventory in Qingdao Port continued to increase, and the inventory accumulation in Yunnan decreased compared to the previous period, while Vietnamese rubber increased slightly [95]. - Futures Inventory: On December 5, 2025, compared with the previous week, natural rubber futures inventory on the SHFE increased by 9.98%, the spot - futures inventory by 8.54%, 20 - number rubber futures inventory on the INE by 11.79%, and the spot - futures inventory by 9.59% [99]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Supply: As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.102 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous period. The inventory continued to accumulate [102]. - Demand: The resumption of production in maintenance enterprises drove the recovery of capacity utilization, but overall production and sales pressure limited the release of production capacity [102]. - View: The increase in overseas supply during the peak production period will put more pressure on the market, and Thai raw material prices may decline rapidly. With inventory accumulation and weak terminal demand, rubber prices may remain weak [102]. - Valuation: On Friday, the spread between RU and NR main contracts was 3020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the spread between mixed standard rubber and RU main contract was - 685 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [102]. - Strategy: 1) For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach or a short - selling strategy when prices are high for RU. 2) For inter - delivery spread trading, consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread if inventory accumulation continues. 3) For inter - variety trading, observe [102].