国泰君安期货·能源化工纸浆周度报告-20251207

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The pulp market is expected to oscillate and consolidate after the realization of positive factors in the short term. The pulp futures market strengthened this week, driven by supply - side news of international pulp mills exiting the market and concerns about the reduction of warehouse receipts. However, the market fundamentals have not changed fundamentally, with high - level port inventories and a loose supply - demand pattern continuing. The downstream paper mills' procurement remains rational and based on rigid demand, and the low processing profit of base paper cannot provide incremental support for pulp prices [96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of pulp in major Chinese ports showed a de - stocking trend. The inventory in Changshu Port was 566,000 tons, down 0.6 million tons (1.0% MoM); in Qingdao Port, it was 1.395 million tons, down 34,000 tons (2.4% MoM); and in Gaolan Port, it was 45,000 tons, down 15,000 tons (25.0% MoM). The total inventory of major port samples was 2.101 million tons, down 71,000 tons (3.3% MoM) [5][6]. - Domtar will permanently close its Crofton factory in Canada, reducing its annual pulp production by about 380,000 tons of NBSK softwood pulp [6]. - Fenlin Group's Joutseno pulp mill will resume operation on December 8, 2025, and its Rauma pulp mill will start a one - month production shutdown on December 15, 2025, and plan to gradually resume production by department from January 7, 2026 [7]. - Shandong Bohui Paper plans to invest about 1.701 billion yuan to expand its chemical wood pulp project. After completion, its chemical wood pulp production capacity will increase from 95,000 tons/year to 320,000 tons/year [8]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On December 5, 2025, the basis of silver star was 150 yuan/ton, down 25.74% MoM and 67.67% YoY; the basis of Russian needle was - 50 yuan/ton, down 78.57% MoM and 457.14% YoY; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle was 200 yuan/ton, down 13.04% MoM and 55.56% YoY [16]. - On December 5, 2025, the 01 - 03 month - spread was - 16 yuan/ton, up 11.11% MoM; the 03 - 05 month - spread was - 24 yuan/ton, up 25.00% MoM [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The import profit of softwood and hardwood pulp has recovered. On December 5, 2025, the import profit of silver star softwood pulp was 83.65 yuan/ton, up 170.04% MoM and 140.60% YoY; the import profit of star hardwood pulp was 122.95 yuan/ton, up 516.27% MoM and 226.39% YoY [30]. - The spot price of imported softwood pulp increased significantly this week. On December 5, 2025, the prices of silver star, Kalip, Beimu, Lion, and Russian needle were 5600 yuan/ton, 5750 yuan/ton, 5850 yuan/ton, 5750 yuan/ton, and 5400 yuan/ton respectively, with MoM increases of 3.70%, 1.77%, 0.86%, 1.77%, and 4.45% [33]. - The spot price of imported hardwood pulp increased. On December 5, 2025, the prices of goldfish, star, bird, and broadleaf were 4600 yuan/ton, 4600 yuan/ton, 4550 yuan/ton, and 4500 yuan/ton respectively, with MoM increases of 4.55%, 3.37%, 3.88%, and 5.88% [37]. - The prices of natural color pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed different trends. On December 5, 2025, the price of Venus natural color pulp was 5150 yuan/ton, up 0.98% MoM and down 4.63% YoY; the price of Kunhe chemimechanical pulp was 3800 yuan/ton, up 2.70% MoM and 7.04% YoY [40]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of some paper enterprises in East China decreased this week. On December 5, 2025, the purchase price of eucalyptus wood chips by Liansheng Pulp and Paper was 1180 yuan/ton, down 1.67% MoM [44]. - The supply of chemimechanical pulp increased this period. On December 4, 2025, the weekly production of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 87,300 tons, up 1.99% MoM and 1.51% YoY [49]. - In October 2025, the pulp inventory in European ports decreased MoM, and the global pulp departure volume decreased seasonally MoM [52]. - In August 2025, the W20 softwood pulp shipment was at a low level with high inventory, while the hardwood pulp shipment remained at a high level with low inventory days [54]. - In August 2025, the total softwood pulp exports of Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China decreased MoM and were at a low level YoY. In September, Finland's exports to China increased significantly both MoM and YoY. In October, Chile's softwood pulp exports to China continued to increase MoM but decreased YoY [60]. - In October 2025, the total hardwood pulp exports of Brazil, India, Uruguay, and Chile to China decreased both MoM and YoY. In November, Brazil's hardwood pulp exports to China decreased significantly MoM, and Uruguay's exports decreased both MoM and YoY [61]. - In October 2025, China's pulp imports were divided. Softwood pulp imports increased 0.06% MoM, hardwood pulp imports decreased 2.77% MoM, and the imports of natural color pulp and chemimechanical pulp increased significantly MoM [65]. 3.3.3 Demand - The price of offset paper remained stable this period. The industry's supply was abundant, but the demand was weak, and the production pressure of factories increased due to the rising pulp price [69]. - The price of coated paper remained stable. The market supply changed little, and the demand was weak. The profitability of the industry continued to narrow, and factories were more willing to support prices [73]. - The price of white cardboard increased slightly. Paper mills announced price increases, but the terminal orders were not significantly improved, and the actual price increase was restricted [77]. - The price of household paper increased slightly. The market trading activity did not change much, and the demand was weak. The cost of household paper was strongly supported by the rising pulp price [81]. - In October 2025, the retail sales of cultural and office supplies, cosmetics, and daily necessities increased significantly YoY, while the dairy production decreased significantly both MoM and YoY [85]. 3.3.4 Inventory - On December 5, 2025, the total number of pulp warehouse receipts was 208,900 tons, a decrease of 0.42% MoM and 39.53% YoY [88]. - The port inventory was at a medium - level within the year and continued to show a de - stocking trend. On December 5, 2025, the total inventory of major port samples was 2.101 million tons, down 3.27% MoM and up 14.12% YoY [93].