南华期货铁合金周报：需求逐渐转弱，震荡偏弱-20251207

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Ferroalloys face the fundamental situation of high self - inventory and weak demand. The cost center may shift downward due to the impact of coal supply guarantee on coking coal prices. However, due to the supply - side's trend of maintaining production cuts and the low valuation of ferroalloys, the downward space for ferroalloys is limited. It is expected that ferroalloys will fluctuate weakly. Although the market may be pre - trading the policy expectations for December recently and the steel prices have been fluctuating strongly, which may slightly drive up the ferroalloy prices, the weakly - fluctuating trend of ferroalloys is difficult to change [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Market Review: Last week, ferroalloys rose slightly due to the electricity price increase in some regions and then fell due to the decline in coking coal. The silicon - iron main contract increased by 1.56% month - on - month, and the total silicon - iron positions decreased by 6.75% month - on - month; the silicon - manganese main contract increased by 2.53% month - on - month, and the total silicon - manganese positions decreased by 14.6% month - on - month [2]. - Core Logic: Pig iron production continued to decline last week due to the decrease in steel mill profitability and seasonal patterns, and is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The inventory of the five major steel products still needs to be reduced through production cuts, so the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The high self - inventory of ferroalloys further suppresses the demand. Ferroalloys are currently facing the contradiction of high inventory and weak demand. The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually declining, and the downstream demand is entering the off - season. The possibility of a significant increase in ferroalloy production is not high. The inventory of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past five years, and the inventory of ferroalloy enterprises continued to accumulate last week, with a month - on - month increase of 2%. Affected by the month - on - month increase in silicon - iron production, the silicon - iron enterprise inventory increased by 1.12% month - on - month, and the inventory pressure still exists. The downstream demand is gradually weakening, and inventory reduction may still need to be achieved through production cuts. The relatively large decline in coking coal prices on Friday will also affect the rebound of ferroalloys [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Short - Term Trading Logic: The inventory of downstream finished products is accumulating beyond the seasonal norm, with obvious characteristics of a non - prosperous peak season, which may further weaken the demand for ferroalloys. Pig iron production is expected to continue the production - cut trend, reducing the demand for ferroalloys. The profitability of steel enterprises has fallen below 40%, and although it rebounded slightly last week, mainly due to the concessions on the raw material side, the profitability of steel enterprises has declined rapidly recently, and the risk of negative feedback is gradually increasing. The continued decline in coking coal prices may affect the price of ferroalloys [7]. - Long - Term Trading Expectations: Expectations of anti - involution, the upcoming central work conference, and the downstream production - cut logic [12]. - Market Positioning: From a technical perspective, the 10 - day and 20 - day moving averages of ferroalloys are currently downward, and the MACD green bars are gradually increasing. The price range of the silicon - iron main contract 2601 is 5200 - 6400 yuan/ton, and the price range of the silicon - manganese main contract 2601 is 5500 - 6500 yuan/ton. - Basis, Spread, and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations: Although the 1 - 5 spread of ferroalloys is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years, it is still not recommended to buy at the bottom immediately. Under the current situation of high inventory and weak demand, the near - month contracts are still weak. With the resurgence of anti - involution, the expectations for the far - month 05 contract will gradually strengthen, and the 1 - 5 spread of ferroalloys may further weaken. However, the 1 - 5 spread of ferroalloys is already low, and the risk of reverse arbitrage is also relatively high [13]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range forecast for silicon - iron is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.09% and a historical percentile of 43.2% in three - year data. The monthly price range forecast for silicon - manganese is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.18% and a historical percentile of 18.1% in three - year data [14]. - Hedging Recommendations: For enterprises with high inventory of finished products worried about the decline in ferroalloy prices, they can short ferroalloy futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range for silicon - iron is 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton and for silicon - manganese is 6400 - 6500 yuan/ton. For enterprises with low inventory of regular purchases and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures at present to lock in purchase costs in advance. The recommended hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range for silicon - iron is 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton and for silicon - manganese is 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton [14]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Ferroalloys have recently maintained a production - cut trend [15]. - Negative Information: The steel peak season is not prosperous, the profitability of steel mills has fallen below 40%, and the pressure of negative feedback is gradually increasing. The coil and plate sector is still in a situation of high inventory and high production, with production at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and there is no driving force on the consumption side, and the inventory is accumulating beyond the seasonal norm, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years. Pig iron production is maintaining a production - cut trend due to seasonal patterns and the decline in steel enterprise profitability, reducing the demand for ferroalloys. The silicon - manganese enterprise inventory continued to accumulate last week, and the inventory pressure still exists [16][18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Next Monday, the final November 2025 ISM manufacturing PMI and November S&P Global manufacturing PMI of the United States will be announced. - Next Wednesday, the November 2025 ADP employment data of the United States will be announced [25]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements: Not specifically described in text, but there are relevant charts for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese closing prices and positions [22]. - Basis and Spread Structure: The term structure of ferroalloys generally shows a contango structure, but the term structure of silicon - iron's phased contracts is gradually improving to become at a discount. Recently, the basis of ferroalloys has fluctuated in a narrow range. Under the current situation of high inventory and weak demand, the near - month contracts are still weak, and the 1 - 5 spread of ferroalloys may further weaken [23]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain - The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually declining, and the market has little expectation of a continued increase in ferroalloy production, maintaining a production - cut trend [39]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The export profit of silicon - iron has improved, and it is expected that the export volume of silicon - iron will rebound [58]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Supply Side: The downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the previous production profit of ferroalloys has continued to decline, which does not support a continued increase in ferroalloy production. Instead, the possibility of manufacturers' production - cut drive is increasing. With the arrival of the flat - water season, the production in the southern silicon - manganese production area may also decline, so the ferroalloy production is expected to decrease [62]. - Demand Side: The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season. Currently, the profits of downstream rebar and hot - rolled coils are showing a downward trend, mainly because the inventory of the five major steel products is currently accumulating. In previous years, the inventory should have shown a de - stocking trend when the peak - season demand arrived, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of the five major steel products has also increased beyond the seasonal norm, suppressing the incremental demand for upstream ferroalloys. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline slightly [62]. 5.2 Supply Side and Deduction - The previous production profit of alloys has continued to decline, which does not support a continued increase in ferroalloy production, and the possibility of manufacturers' production - cut drive is increasing. With the arrival of the flat - water season, the production in the southern silicon - manganese production area may also decline. Especially, the production profit of silicon - iron has declined significantly, with a strong production - cut drive, and the production is expected to decline slightly [64]. 5.3 Demand Side and Deduction - Pig iron production is expected to maintain a production - cut trend according to seasonal patterns and the decline in steel enterprise profitability, and the demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline [68]. 5.4 Inventory Side and Deduction - Given the current high operating rate of ferroalloys and weak downstream demand, it is highly possible that the inventory of ferroalloy enterprises will continue to accumulate. However, after the forced cancellation, the warehouse receipts have started to be re - registered, and the total inventory is expected to gradually increase [83].