流动性与同业存单跟踪：“进退维谷”的同业存单

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of the central bank's medium - term liquidity injection tools such as outright reverse repurchase and MLF forms a price - comparison relationship with the current issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs). Also, the scale of public money market funds and bank wealth management cash - management products is expected to continue growing, so it's difficult for the inter - bank CD rate to rise significantly. However, it's also hard for DR001 to fall significantly below the central bank's 7 - day OMO rate, so the downward space for the inter - bank CD rate is limited [1]. - In the context of low cross - year financing difficulty, the inter - bank CD yield may remain in a "dilemma" pattern within the year. Wait patiently for a possible CD allocation point in January 2026 [4][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs "进退维谷"的同业存单 - Since the fourth quarter, the yield of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CDs has had an amplitude of only 5bp, fluctuating between 1.63% and 1.68%. In December, the amplitude has narrowed to 2bp, indicating a balance between "long" and "short" factors [2][11]. - The inter - bank CD yield has a high difficulty in rising. The cost of the central bank's medium - term liquidity injection tools forms a price - comparison relationship with the CD issuance rate, and the growth of current - account wealth management product scale drives up the CD allocation demand [3][11]. - The inter - bank CD yield also has a high difficulty in falling. Under the policy of narrowing the short - term interest rate corridor, DR001 and R001 are unlikely to deviate significantly from the central bank's 7 - day OMO rate, and the money market has been characterized by "ample quantity but stable price" in the past six months [4][12]. 狭义流动性 央行操作：月初季节性净回笼 - In the past week (12/1 - 12/5), the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 8480 billion yuan, and the reverse repurchase balance as of December 5 was 6638 billion yuan, at a low level [13]. - In December, the maturity amount of outright reverse repurchase was 14000 billion yuan (10000 billion yuan for 3M and 4000 billion yuan for 6M), and the maturity of MLF was 3000 billion yuan. On December 5, the central bank renewed 10000 billion yuan of 3M outright reverse repurchase, achieving an equal - amount renewal [14][15]. 机构融入融出情况：月初融出顺畅 - On December 5, the net funds lent out by large - scale banks (flow concept) were 4.1 trillion yuan, about 7415 billion yuan higher than on November 28, and the net lending balance was 4.7 trillion yuan, about 2966 billion yuan more than on November 28, both at relatively high levels compared with the same period in previous years. The net lending balance of money market funds was 1.2 trillion yuan, about 2366 billion yuan lower than on November 28, at a neutral level compared with the same period in previous years. The net lending of joint - stock banks was 40 billion yuan, about 317 billion yuan higher than on November 28, at a relatively low level compared with the same period in previous years [16]. - On December 5, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank pledged repurchase market was about 11.7 trillion yuan, 6678 billion yuan higher than on November 28. The leverages of the whole market and non - legal person products changed accordingly [26]. 回购市场成交情况：月初流动性摩擦小 - In terms of quantity and price of funds, at the end of the month, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged repurchase market were stable. The median daily trading volume was about 7.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4867 billion yuan compared with 11/24 - 11/28. The median of R001 was 1.36%, a 1bp decrease from last week. The liquidity friction was small [30]. - The money market was generally loose, and the financing difficulty at the beginning of the month was low, with the sentiment index mostly around 50 [31]. 利率互换：基本持平 - The 1 - year FR007 IRS rate and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS 1 - year rate decreased slightly compared with last week. The median of the 1 - year FR007 IRS was 1.54%, in the bottom 10% of the range since 2020, and the median of the SHIBOR 3 - month IRS 1 - year was 1.60%, in the bottom 22% of the range since 2020 [36]. 政府债：未来一周政府债净缴款压力下降 下周政府债净缴款 - In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 1866 billion yuan, with relatively small overall pressure. Treasury bonds and local bonds had net payments of 500 billion and 1366 billion yuan respectively. In the next week, government bonds are expected to have a net repayment of 7952 billion yuan, with treasury bonds having a net repayment of 8797 billion yuan and local bonds having a net payment of 845 billion yuan [37]. 当前政府债发行进度 - As of December 5, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 96.2%, up 2.6% from the previous week, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 was about 2523 billion yuan. The issuance of the 5000 - billion - yuan local bond quota balance to be carried forward within the year has started [39]. 同业存单：收益率窄幅震荡 绝对收益率 - On December 5, SHIBOR quotes for overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 1.3%, 1.42%, 1.52%, 1.58%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.65% respectively. Except for the 7 - day term, which decreased by 2bp compared with November 28, the quotes for other terms remained unchanged. The yields of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank CDs of commercial banks with AAA ratings were 1.58%, 1.62%, 1.64%, 1.66%, and 1.66% respectively, with those of 1M and above terms increasing by 13bp, 4bp, 2bp, 2bp, and 2bp respectively compared with November 28 [42]. 发行和存量情况 - In the past week (December 1 - December 5), the total primary issuance volume of inter - bank CDs was 4959 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 13%, 12%, 44%, 9%, and 22% respectively, with the proportions of 1M, 6M, and 9M increasing and those of 3M and 1Y decreasing [44]. 相对估值 - On December 5, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield and R007 was 16bp, at the 35% quantile since 2020; the spread between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank CD yield was 19bp, at the 47% quantile since 2020 [47].