期货策略周报：产业端产能调整-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent continuous decline in the market is mainly driven by the National Development and Reform Commission's coal supply guarantee policy. Coal chemical varieties have followed the downward trend, but their valuations are low, so short - selling is not cost - effective. The supply guarantee is a short - term logical driver, while anti - involution is a long - term logic. The oilseeds and oils of agricultural products are expected to remain volatile. China's purchase of 12 million tons of soybeans this year cannot change the global oversupply situation of soybeans. After the current adjustment, two investment ideas can be considered: low - buying of strong varieties after adjustment and technical rebound trading of oversold varieties [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Market View Summary - The commodity market continued to diverge this week. Non - ferrous metals and precious metals were strong, while black and chemical varieties were weak. The 01 contract was pushed to an extreme. Copper, aluminum, and silver were in a main - rising wave due to supply shortages, but the gold trend deviated and required caution. Agricultural products showed an overall volatile pattern, with short - term selling pressure. After the domestic soybean meal adjusts, it can be considered for low - buying. The rising inventory of Malaysian palm oil has pressured palm oil prices. In the energy and chemical sector, domestic coal prices have continuously declined under the supply guarantee policy, which has also put pressure on coal - related chemical products. In the black sector, coking coal and coke have led the overall decline in valuations, but it is unlikely to return to the price levels in early July [4]. Capital Flow in Different Sectors - The total capital flow was 20.027 billion yuan. The precious metals sector had a capital flow of 1.253 billion yuan (15.5%), the non - ferrous metals sector had 8.545 billion yuan (100.0%), the black metals sector had 218 million yuan (4.9%), the energy and chemical sector had 802 million yuan (25.0%), the feed and breeding sector had 194 million yuan (9.3%), the oilseeds and oils sector had - 772 million yuan (- 17.1%), and the soft commodities sector had 463 million yuan (27.8%) [9]. Weekly Data of Different Commodity Categories - Black and Non - Ferrous Metals: For black metals such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc., and non - ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, and silver, data on price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, etc., were provided. For example, iron ore had a price percentile of 20.5%, an inventory percentile of 96.1%, and a valuation percentile of 0.0% [9]. - Energy and Chemical Products: For energy and chemical products like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt, data on price percentile, inventory percentile, etc., were presented. For instance, fuel oil had a price percentile of 0.0%, an inventory percentile of 100.0%, and a valuation percentile of 0.0% [11]. - Agricultural Products: For agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil, data on price percentile, inventory percentile, etc., were given. For example, soybean meal had a price percentile of 7.8%, an inventory percentile of 100.0%, and a valuation percentile of 0.0% [12].