Asia-Potash(SZ:000893) Guoxin Securities·2025-12-08 03:21Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][5][6] Core Views - The successful trial run of the million-ton potash fertilizer project at the Xiaodongbu mining area marks a significant milestone for the company, indicating strong long-term growth potential [2][3][7] - The Xiaodongbu mining area has substantial resources, with an estimated potash ore volume of 3.936 billion tons and an estimated potassium chloride resource of 677 million tons, supporting the company's capacity expansion [3][7] - The company is expected to enter a stable production ramp-up phase, aiming for a mid-term production target of 5 million tons, facilitated by the newly operational main transportation system [3][8] Summary by Sections Project Development - The Xiaodongbu mining area is a key growth driver for the company, with a total area of 179.8 square kilometers and a high average potassium chloride grade of 17.14% [3][7] - The main transportation system, which is 2,500 meters long and has a capacity of 3,000 tons per hour, will enable efficient resource development and production upgrades [3][8] Industry Outlook - The global potash fertilizer supply and demand are tight, with expectations for high industry prosperity over the next 2-3 years [4][9] - In October, China's potash imports reached 1.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26%, indicating robust domestic demand [4][9] - The supply side is constrained, with no new production capacity expected until 2025, and only the company's new capacity will be released in 2026-2027 [4][9] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.86 billion, 2.73 billion, and 3.29 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.00, 2.94, and 3.54 yuan [5][10] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23.8, 16.2, and 13.4, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5][10]