转债市场周报：等待春躁布局景气+红利-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of uncertain Fed rate - cut amplitude next year, significant global economic and geopolitical variables, it's difficult for liquidity to drive a major upward trend. The AI infrastructure faces over - investment doubts, and the AI, lithium - battery, and anti - involution sectors are waiting for certain developments. From a seasonal perspective, high - dividend sectors are expected to have a good performance at the end of the year. Overall, the equity market may enter a wide - range oscillation state, waiting for the spring rally. [2][17] - In the convertible bond market, the capital flow in November had a great impact on the market. The share of convertible bond ETFs showed a "down - up - down" trend, which was consistent with the overall market valuation trend. Due to unclear equity expectations and poor overall cost - effectiveness of convertible bond assets, the premium rate is vulnerable, and the operation of convertible bonds is difficult. [2][17] - For relative - return investors, it is recommended to allocate a small and balanced position in non - callable, high - quality equity - linked convertible bonds with suitable premium rates. For absolute - return investors, it is recommended to focus on convertible bonds below 130 yuan with high odds. [2][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends (2025/12/1 - 2025/12/5) Stock Market - The A - share market was generally oscillating last week. With the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and positive signals from the China - US economic and trade delegation meeting, the market risk appetite remained high. The non - ferrous and commercial aerospace sectors performed strongly. [7] - By industry, most Shenwan primary industries rose. Non - ferrous metals (5.35%), communication (3.69%), national defense and military industry (2.82%), machinery (2.77%), and non - bank finance (2.27%) led the gains, while media (- 3.86%), real estate (- 2.15%), beauty care (- 2.00%), and food and beverage (- 1.90%) lagged. [8] Bond Market - The bond market continued to weaken last week, with sentiment stabilizing and yields slightly declining on Friday. The 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.85% on Friday, up 0.68bp from the previous week. [8] Convertible Bond Market - Most convertible bond issues rose last week. The CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 0.08% for the whole week, the median price increased by 0.19%, the arithmetic average parity decreased by 0.17%, and the overall market conversion premium rate increased by 0.79% compared with the previous week. [1][8] - By industry, half of the convertible bond sectors in the market rose. National defense and military industry (+3.64%), non - bank finance (+2.21%), non - ferrous metals (+1.53%), and petroleum and petrochemical (+1.40%) led the gains, while steel (- 2.53%), computer (- 0.96%), household appliances (- 0.91%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (- 0.71%) lagged. [11] - At the individual bond level, Yake, Weidao, Yong 02, Furong, and Ruichuang convertible bonds led the gains, while Dazhong, Guocheng, Limin, Yingbo, and Yitian convertible bonds led the losses. [1][12] - The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 254.549 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 50.91 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week. [15] 3.2 Valuation Overview (as of 2025/12/05) - For equity - linked convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates for par values in the ranges of 80 - 90 yuan, 90 - 100 yuan, 100 - 110 yuan, 110 - 120 yuan, 120 - 130 yuan, and above 130 yuan were 46.32%, 32.88%, 29.62%, 19.91%, 12.21%, and 11.93% respectively, at the 96%/94%, 90%/86%, 96%/99%, 90%/89%, 78%/67%, 95%/94% percentile since 2010/2021. [18] - For bond - linked convertible bonds, the average YTM for par values below 70 yuan was - 4.11%, at the 1%/4% percentile since 2010/2021. [18] - The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds was 42.97%, at the 87% percentile since 2010/2021. The difference between the implied volatility of convertible bonds and the long - term actual volatility of the underlying stocks was 1.69%, at the 82%/83% percentile since 2010/2021. [18] 3.3 Primary Market Tracking - From 2025/12/1 to 2025/12/5, the Pulan Convertible Bond was announced for issuance, and no convertible bonds were listed. Pulan Software, the underlying stock of Pulan Convertible Bond, belongs to the computer industry. The company's 2024 revenue was 836 million yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 11.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 121 million yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 95.06%. In 2025Q1 - 3, the revenue was 300 million yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.17%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 100,000 yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 90.07%. The scale of the issued convertible bond is 243 million yuan. [26] - As of the announcement on December 5, there were no announcements of convertible bond issuance and listing in the coming week (2025/12/8 - 2025/12/12). Last week, 2 companies' applications passed the listing committee review, 1 company's application was accepted by the exchange, 3 companies' applications passed the shareholders' meeting, and 2 companies' applications were at the board of directors' proposal stage. Currently, there are 96 convertible bonds waiting to be issued, with a total scale of 149.23 billion yuan, including 6 approved for registration with a total scale of 4.47 billion yuan and 8 passing the listing committee review with a total scale of 9.81 billion yuan. [27]